Iowa @ Iowa State +2.5
The look-ahead line for this game two weeks ago was Iowa St. -3.5, so the line movement here seems like a major overreaction. We’re basically getting 6 points of value because of Iowa State’s scare against Northern Iowa. I don’t think Iowa beating Miami OH by 24 and Rutgers by 30 (both at home) warrants this much of a correction. I also question how motivated Iowa State was for that game and think UNI just caught them off guard. If it weren’t for a 53 yd scoop and score late in the 3rd quarter, Iowa St. likely wins this game in regulation by 7-11 points. Had that been the case, I don’t think we’d be in this situation.
Matt Campbell returns 16 starters from last season, and I’m sure he wants to get the monkey off his back by finally beating his in-state rival. Iowa State hasn’t beaten Iowa since 2014, and with how brutal the rest of their schedule is, I’m sure he knows how important this game is. Iowa State has also had extra rest/prep time coming off a bye week, and I think that plus their home field advantage makes all the difference in this one. Ames is a tough place to play, and Iowa State’s success ATS at home proves that.
- Since 2016, Iowa State is 9-2 ATS (81.8%) as home dogs
- Covered by an average of 9.2 points in those games
NCAAF Record (through week 2): 4-1-1 for +2.9 units
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