Boise State -7 (-110) vs Air Force
I was on Air Force last week, and while they cashed our tickets & won outright in OT, they are now in a brutal spot playing back-to-back road games on a short week. I know all about Boise State’s ATS woes at home on the blue turf (8-14 ATS at home since 2016), but I attribute some of that to Boise State being a popular bet amongst casual bettors looking for action on an abbreviated Friday night slate. In this case, Boise State is not a popular bet (currently 45% of tickets). We are also getting value on a number that has been steamed from Boise State -9.5 to -7.
When I backed Air Force last week, part of my reasoning was that Colorado was unfamiliar & inexperienced against option offenses. Boise State faces option offenses twice a year with Air Force & New Mexico in the same conference, so I expect them to be well-prepared. While this is also a potential letdown spot for Air Force after upsetting Colorado, I’m taking more stock in their failure to cover the spread against in-conference opponents. Since 2016, Air Force is 13-2 ATS (86.7%) against non-conference teams but only 6-17-1 (26.1%) against in-conference opponents.
NCAAF Record (through week 3): 8-2-1 for +5.8 units
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