There are a combination of factors which make this game the first BEST BET of the 2019 season. First is the most obvious which is that Nevada has owned Hawaii recently winning six of the last seven meetings and going 6-1 ATS. Last five meetings at Nevada, the Wolfpack have won all five by 10 points per more. Another factor is Hawaii’s ATS woes on the road, in their last 20 road games they are just 6-13-1 ATS. The next semi obvious angle is the elevation Hawaii will deal with traveling to Reno.
I believe being in the Mountain West elevation plays a decent factor in how poorly they have been ATS wise on the road. The Rainbow Warriors are just 2-5 in their last seven conference road openers.What I really think Hawaii will struggle with here is the temperature. The high in Reno on Saturday is going to be 51 degrees and there is a good chance it gets rainy. This is going to be a HUGE adjustment for Hawaii who will board their plane in 80+ degree weather. Now, this is not something they won’t be TOTALLY unprepared for but still will be a shock to the system, and a decent factor this early in the season.
Hawaii is allowing opponents to rush for six yards per rush and 6.9 yards per play on defense. Nevada has not seen the type of offensive performance they would like since their opening night upset win over Purdue and this may be a great spot for them to flex their muscle against a soft defense on the road in unfavorable weather conditions.
Hawaii has been overvalued in my opinion since stunning Arizona back in August before outlasting Oregon State again at home. Then last week Hawaii put up 28 first half points and were able to cruise to a 35-16 victory at home. Nevada has played a better quality of opponents in Oregon and Purdue. I really think this spot greatly benefits Nevada here and laying under a field goal feels very cheap.
BEST BET Nevada -2.5
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’19 NCAAF: 14-5-2 +11.77 units