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Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA and at Vegasinsider.com
Here’s a look at what to consider before wagering on Saturday’s slate: UCF (-11/61) at Pittsburgh, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC: The Knights won’t play another Power-5 until a bowl game, which if they get their wish, would be part of the national semifinals. UCF still must clear road hurdles at Cincinnati, Temple and Tulane, but it will be favored in every remaining regular-season contest and would have swept both its scheduled games against “big boys” if it handles business here after routing Stanford in Orlando last weekend. Freshman Dillon Gabriel has emerged as the top quarterback in the program, winning the starter’s gig over Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush and junior holdover Darriel Mack, Jr., who has returned from injury. Following the footsteps of fellow Hawaiian McKenzie Milton, Gabriel secured his spot by throwing for 347 yards and four TDs against the Cardinal and has been incredible with his reads and ball placement down the field. He’ll be facing another highly thought of NFL prospect in safety Damar Hamlin after connecting with top WR Gabriel Davis to repeatedly torch Stanford CB Paulson Adebo, so a full national coming-out party is possible given the national broadcast. Pitt lost 45-14 to UCF in Central Florida last season but does have weapons on both sides of the ball that can make this a much closer game.
Washington (-6.5/49) at BYU, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2: The Huskies dropped their Pac-12 opener to Cal and seem likely to take a step back from contention after 32 wins in the past three years, but Chris Petersen has repeated proven he shouldn’t be written off. We’ll know more about whether a down year is indeed inevitable after this one since we’re not really sure how good BYU is either. Washington had a late 35-0 lead before the Cougs scored a late TD in last year’s meeting in Seattle, but this game is expected to be much closer. After opening the season with a lopsided loss to rival Utah, wins against Tennessee and USC has restored hope in Provo. Zach Wilson has gone from next-in-line to ordinary to favorite son again, answering questions about being the Mormon Manziel. The Cougs defense has risen up when they’ve needed to late in games but could be without linebacker Zayne Anderson and safety Sawyer Powell. BYU is staging a “white-out” to try and pull off an upset by rattling QB Jacob Eason in his first road start with U-Dub after transferring in from Georgia. Creating mistakes with pressure will be essential to a BYU upset bid.
Appalachian State at North Carolina (-2.5/58), 3:30 p.m. ET: The Mountaineers have dominated the first two games of the Eli Drinkwitz era but get their crack at their Super Bowl for the season as they visit Chapel Hill. The former NC State offensive coordinator should be well-versed in the Tar Heels’ personnel but will have to adjust to Mack Brown and his staff, who have certainly put a lot of their tendencies on tap since they’ve been involved in so many tight games to open the season. Freshman QB Sam Howell has lived up to the hype, showing poise beyond his years and a great ability to make plays, and he won’t be looking past this game since his parents are alumni and his brother and sister are Mountaineers. He’s been at his best in fourth quarters and should be tough to contain if this is close. Appalachian State is roughly three hours from Chapel Hill and will provide the final opportunity for standout QB Zac Thomas to light up a Power-5 this season given the Sun Belt’s bowl ties. A hot, sunny day could set the stage for a shootout.
Auburn at Texas A&M (-4/48), 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS: Freshman Bo Nix will make his first true road start as the Tigers look to win a third straight game in this series. Before the Sept. 7 loss to Clemson, last season’s 28-24 loss at Auburn was the Aggies’ most recent defeat under Jimbo Fisher, so this SEC opener has been circled on the schedule as a true springboard game for how this season is going to go for A&M considering they host Alabama on Oct. 12 and close with visits to Georgia at LSU. The pretender or contender thing will be decided today for both teams since Auburn will face all of those teams too, but starting 4-0 would certainly make for an easier ride for Gus Malzahn, who has already escaped disaster once thanks to a frantic comeback over Oregon in Week 1. A&M blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead at Auburn last season that Kellen Mond had a hand in squandering, so he’ll need to respond by protecting the ball against the Tigers’ defensive front and minimizing miscues while keeping plays alive. The Ags are 9-1-1 ATS over their past 11 games at Kyle Field, with the lone loss coming in that 7OT win over LSU that the Tigers covered despite a 74-72 loss. The lesson here is that A&M has grown pretty reliable at covering the number at home.
Louisville at Florida State (-6.5/60.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN: The ‘Noles dropped their home opener to Boise State and the ACC opener at Virginia last week, but Willie Taggart’s buyout is too large for him not to get another season so long as his team doesn’t continue embarrassing him. FSU has played above-average teams and have had chances to win before sabotaging itself with defensive breakdowns and mental errors like penalties and turnovers, so there’s hope the team can still turn things around. It sounds like QB James Blackman is losing his grip on the job since the plan is to take a look at Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook early in a series here. Scott Satterfield has been forced to play three quarterbacks through three games due to injuries and lists Puma Pass as a game-time decision. Malik Cunningham is also available to start and freshman Evan Conley could see more action, so there are a lot of variables in play. Whoever starts will be doing plenty of handing off to redshirt freshman RB Javian Hawkins, who ranks 11th nationally in rushing and will be playing back in his home state.
Follow Tony Mejia on Twitter at @TonyMejiaNBA and at Vegasinsider.com
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