I like this spot for Virginia here – last week we saw them fall behind Old Dominion and, for many, the possibility of Virginia overlooking Old Dominion put many sharp bettors on the ODU +28 side which cashed with ease. Whether or not they overlooked ODU we may never know, but what we do know is that Notre Dame is a bigger opponent for Virginia than Old Dominion was.
Looking at the rest of the Irish schedule, this is the game they really need a good performance here for the resume, considering the remaining strength of schedule. So Notre Dame does need this game more than Virginia does, but they’re also coming off a hard fought game with Georgia. A Virginia win could perhaps launch them into the top 15. Notre Dame has allowed an average of 208 rushing yards a game to Louisville, New Mexico, and UGA. They will really need to contain UVA QB Bryce Perkins – if he is able to hurt Notre Dame on the ground that will make things that much easier to move through the air.
Virginia was called, “One of the nations best defenses.” by Phil Steele in his preview magazine, and so far they have lived up to it allowing a nation’s 10th lowest yard per play mark at 3.9. They will use this combined with a balanced rushing and passing attack to move against this Notre Dame defense allowing over 5 yards per play this season. Notre Dame is off a brutal game vs UGA in which they were competitive but I wonder how their lineman feel after going up against the monstrous size advantage UGA had on the line.
Watching Notre Dame struggle not only against UGA on the ground but others on their schedule as well has me questioning how they will be able to move the ball against this Virginia front. I liked how they looked last week against Old Dominion – after they spotted them 17 points, the Cavs went on to score 28 unanswered points in what was most likely a lookahead spot for Virginia as well as a spot for in state little brother ODU to get up and try to smack UVA in the mouth. I like Virginia to stay well within this number here.
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’19 NCAAF: 14-5-2 +11.77 units