Season to date: 15-8 ATS, +31 units
Plays are rated from 1-10 units with 10 being the strongest.
Here is a recap of what I said for the Lions +10.5 on Monday Night Football:
Let’s get after it for Monday Night.
Tough day yesterday, no doubt. We were right there though in every single game – 3 losses by 5 points or less. San Diego was up by 8 with the clock winding down in the 4th and then missed the cover. Oakland was up 1 marching for another score only to fumble the ball on a mental mistake.
But it’s over.
This is a man’s game and you know what? I want to win every game but if the losses we have come down to the wire every single time like they did yesterday then I’ll take that all day. Maybe it’s not good for our blood pressure but the fact is this – we had a chance to win every single game yesterday. I woke up this morning ready to go and probably even more fired up than had we won yesterday because I love coming off losses. A loss is a challenge and a chance to bounceback – in football and in life. Let’s take our first crack at a bounceback tonight:
- DET +10.5 @ SEA
We’re banking on Detroit to stay competitive tonight. They’ve been just that thus far this year despite an 0-3 record and have had one of the hardest (if not the hardest schedule in the league so far).
Week 1 in San Diego they were up 21-3 before they fell flat in the 2nd half.
Week 2 they lost to a tough Minnesota team who just competed with Denver til the very end.
Week 3 they were down by 2 midway through the 4th quarter to Denver and gave them a game.
Detroit has too good of an offense to stay this mediocre in the scoring department. Stafford was banged up in Weeks 1 &2. Not the case tonight. If you haven’t seen this kid Ameer Abdullah out of the backfield for the Lions yet then keep your eye on him tonight – you can watch him break the Chargers’ Safety’s ankles here.
Abdullah and Theo Riddick spearhead a backfield that Stafford can lean on in the short passing game. That is certainly an option tonight with DE Brandon Mebane out for the Seahawks. The Seahawks will be preoccupied with Megatron and Golden Tate deep so Stafford would be wise to lean on his 2 runningbacks. If he is smart and does that then the Lions will be able to move the ball.
The Seahawks will be without Marshawn Lynch tonight and, while I think their backup Thomas Rawles will do a good job, this injury is definitely a key story. My opinion on the Seahawks is this – they haven’t gelled yet on offense with Jimmy Graham now in town. Him and Russel Wilson have been on different pages in a lot of cases and if tonight is the night where they breakthrough that then so be it, but I’m going to back a strong sign that I’ve seen on tape.
The Seahawks offensive line has been shaky and what I noticed from their 23-0 win over the Bears last week was this: the Hawks had just 9 points of true offense in that game – they had a kickoff returned for a TD and then Richard Sherman had that fake punt return play that led the Seahawks to the redzone. They didn’t move the ball much and I don’t know how much this offense can really score.
I view tonight’s game like this: Detroit has been a bit shaky, no doubt. But I feel if Detroit gets to 16 points we are safe. If Seattle can score more than 26 points tonight then I tip my cap to them. But they haven’t shown any signs that they are able to do that and for that reason I am backing Detroit.
Lions +10.5, 5 units.
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