College football Week 4, NFL Week 3 best bets

Back for the 2nd week and this will be a weekly thing. Last week Florida +6 and Missouri +4 both won outright, the Seahawks +5 won in Detroit and Zach Wilson went Under 175.5 yards. Overall picks went 4-4 with Rhamondre Stevenson a half rushing yard away from picks going 5-3 with the losses on Stevenson O50.5 rush yards, Jets +9, Bengals -3 and Under 48 in Arkansas/BYU Saturday.

7 bets below with a few more potentially being added later. Lets have a weekend.

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Clemson +2.5

This game is a total overreaction of both teams in opposite ways. Florida State came out week 1 blistering hot, whooping up on LSU. Clemson on the other hand, as most know, started the year on the road and got pummeled against a good Duke team. I played Duke and FSU in week 1. Now I’m looking to back the undervalued team at home, in a must-win situation. The Seminoles squeaked by Boston College, and while most will say a win is a win, that to me is a bit concerning as they were 25.5 point favorites. Clemson hasn’t played anyone note-worthy in the last two weeks, but their offense is finally clicking, averaging 57 PPG. A key difference in this game will be third down conversions. Clemson is converting at 48.15%, while FSU is only converting 40% of their third downs (1/9 last week). Clemson will be able to air it out here as the Seminoles allow an average of 268.7 passing yards per game, and if they convert their third downs, it will keep Jordan Travis and company off the field. This in turn should open running lanes and check down options for Will Shipley to get out in space. I will gladly take the +2.5 with Clemson here as I think they win this game outright in a potential thriller.

Cole Sharpe

@TripleSharpe on Twitter. Missouri +4 on here last week with the win over Kansas St

(Clemson +2.5 was bet Wednesday. Would still play +2 or +1.5)

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Browns -3 
*Would play up to -3.5 -120

This is a great bounce back spot for the Browns after their nationally televised loss against the Steelers on Prime Time Monday Night. Cleveland outgained the Steelers by over 150 yards but lost the game because the Steelers scored two defensive touchdowns. I don’t see the Titans defense replicating that, especially on the road.

Watson had two crucial fumbles, but outside of that the Browns well-balanced offense moved the ball up and down the field all night — accumulating over 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing. Their defense was as excellent as advertised. They didn’t allow the Steelers into the red zone a single time all game, only allowed a grand total of nine first downs and only allowed one touchdown — a long flukey play on a busted coverage. Through two weeks, Cleveland’s defense has allowed one total touchdown while holding their two opponents to a combined 3.7 yards per play — a truly elite unit in Jim Schwartz’s new scheme. If it wasn’t for turnovers, the Browns would have won that game by double digits and this spread would be closer to the -4.5 that it opened at, a truly excellent buy-low spot on the home team.

Yes, everyone knows about Vrabel’s elite track record as an underdog, a league best 28-18 (61%) ATS since 2018 when he became a head coach. What gets lost in that stat however is that the majority of those covers came as large underdogs. As a favorite of 3.5 points or less (like he is in this game) Vrabel is only 7-7 ATS in his career, no significant edge there whatsoever. The Titans lost their final seven games of the season last year because they were the most injured team in the league, and now they are once again banged up through two weeks, particularly on the offensive line which is a nightmare scenario against Myles Garret, ZaDarius Smith, and Co. The Titans have not been a strong road team against top-tier foes under Vrabel, including losses of 25 and 34 points last year against the Eagles and Bills respectively. The Titans got their first win of the season last week (a big ‘exhale’ after two razor close games to begin the season) while the Browns had a week to seethe about blowing a game they deserved to win against their hated rival. I’m very happy laying a field goal with the superior team here, even without Nick Chubb. Take the Browns.

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Broncos +6.5 -110 (2u)

This feels like a classic “Buy Low, Sell High” spot. Denver is 0-2 SU and ATS, but they’ve been one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL so far. Their offense is actually moving the ball well and I still have trust in Sean Payton. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are the public’s darling, currently getting ~75% of the bets this week, and yet they’ve just barely escaped in both of their wins. There are also several trends I like that back the Broncos side…

Trends:

• On a 2+ game losing streak, Russell Wilson is 14-5 SU and 14-4-1 ATS
• Since 2012, 0-2 ATS teams as a road dog in Week 3 have covered 62%
• Since 2012, teams playing their first home game in Week 3 and getting the majority of spread tickets are just 9-26 ATS (26%)

@ChampionPicks on Twitter. Seahawks +5 for 2 units on here last week. He’s giving out all of his plays this weekend free through this link .  Select the weekend package and enter code “spread” at checkout

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Oregon -21 

Against ranked conference opponents, favorites of 21 or more are 14-4-0 ATS in the last 18 instances, which is the case when #10 Oregon hosts #19 Colorado. No Travis Hunter for the Buffs is a huge loss, & an even bigger issue for a defense that was already struggling with Hunter on the field. The Ducks are an offensive juggernaut (averaging 58.0ppg, 2nd best in the country), so they should have no problem moving the ball & attacking downfield. Oregon’s ability to finish drives, especially against a defense without their top player, will make it a long day for Colorado. Their pass rush is no joke as well, & with Colorado electing to pass on over 60% of their offensive snaps, that defensive line is going to be licking their chops all afternoon. The Colorado offensive line isn’t very good, so that Oregon front should feast. I also think Oregon sees this as a statement game & steps on Colorado’s throats. With lowly Stanford & a bye week on deck for the Ducks, this certainly isn’t a look-ahead spot, so they’ll be going all out to stomp Colorado. Where the Ducks tend to struggle is against the run, but as mentioned before, Colorado looks to pass more than 60% of the time, so clock eating drives aren’t going to happen for Colorado — which would be nice if they actually wanted to slow down the Oregon offense — but they just simply don’t run the ball very well at all, especially with that struggling offensive line. A one-dimensional, banged up Colorado is no match for this high-octane Oregon offense on their home turf, so we’re going to lay the 21 with the Ducks at home.

@HammerHeadBets on Twitter. 302-197-14 college football record the last 2 seasons and had Florida +6 over Tennessee on here last week.

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UTSA/Tennessee Under 60

The UTSA Roadrunners were without star quarterback last weekend. He’s considered a game time decision for this weekend’s game at Tennessee. UTSA’s offense has been a huge disappointment so far this year. They are 92nd in success rate on offense. The Roadrunners are missing Franklin their star WR who transferred to Ole Miss in the offseason. I would think it is less than 50% that Harris will play here especially since UTSA has a bye week after this game. Tennessee isn’t even close to the same offense with Joe Milton as they were with Hendon Hooker. Hooker was a very accurate great decision maker who helped this fast paced offense go with precision in the passing game. The Volunteers are just 44th in offensive success rate. They are 63rd in QBR so far this season. UTSA is 40th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Tennessee is 22nd in that statistic. These are two pretty good defenses. I think this total is a few points too high given the situation. Both of these teams are far lower scoring than they were a year ago, take the Under.

@KyleHunterPicks on Twitter. 57-24 in college football season last season.

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For analytic reports on player props, Over/Unders, betting trends and give Edghouse a follow on Twitter and visit Edghouse.com. Their reports come with cover margins and highlight mismatches to take advantage of in various markets for the NFL, college football, MLB and basketball

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Bijan Robinson O23.5 receiving yards

Robinson was drafted 8th overall to be a focal part of Arthur Smith’s offense – he caught 6 balls for 27 yards and 1 TD in his NFL debut and only got more involved against GB in Week 2, catching 4 balls for 48 yards on 5 targets. Robinson is a dynamic playmaker in space – expect the Falcons to target him early and
often and to get this offense rolling against a Lions’ defense that can still be exploited in 2023 and ranks 25th in passing YPG allowed, 26th in YPA and 27th in passes of 10+ yards.

You can find Pat and his work at Sporting-Intelligence.com. 

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Vikings -1 vs Chargers     2 units

The Chargers defense just let Ryan Tannehill have a big game and beat them in overtime and the pressure on this team and Brandon Staley is high after more bad coaching and a slow start after the lead they blew in the playoffs to the Jaguars. Austin Ekeler called out the Chargers coaching last week and with him out hurt last week the run game had only 2.9 yards/carry and they don’t have a RB to replace what he does in the pass game. He’s out again this week and so is LB Eric Kendricks. Joey Bosa’s also not 100%.  The Vikings have 7 turnovers in 2 games and lost both by 1 score – if they can clean up the turnovers Cousins just threw for 364 yards and 4 TDs vs the Eagles and Justin Jefferson had 159 yards. The Vikings get their starting left tackle back and their Center might be back as well. Back to back road games for the Chargers and the Vikings have 3 extra days to prep.