Pat Higgins
Mismatches that will Impact Game Results in Week 4:
- San Francisco loves to run the football and is going to have an excellent matchup to do so against Arizona’s run defense that ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed per game and 22nd in YPC allowed. SF ranks 3rd in the league in rushing YPG and 4th in both YPC and
runs of 10+ yards. Dallas ran for 185 yards on this defensive front in Week 3, led by Tony Pollard who rushed for 122 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC). Deebo did not practice on Thursday, while Brandon Aiyuk was limited – if they’re missing at least Deebo and Aiyuk
is limited, expect SF to try to move the ball on the ground with McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell and set up some play action for George Kittle
2. The Bears’ defensive shortcomings are not going anywhere – they rank 32nd in defensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate, YPP allowed, YPA, sacks and QB hits. This all translates into a spot where Russell Wilson should be able to sustain some
success through the air – he’s thrown for 300+ in the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Commanders. The Bears lost their defensive coordinator to a resignation heading into Week 3 and are extremely banged up in the secondary – CB Jaylon Johnson
(hamstring), S Eddie Jackson (foot) and CB Josh Blackwell DNP on Thursday. CB Kyler Gordon (hand) is already on IR – Jaquan Brisker and Tyrique Stevenson are only healthy DB’s on the roster. Pat Mahomes threw for 272 yards before exiting the game early in
the 3rd quarter, while Baker Mayfield exceeded the 300+ yard mark in Week 2, throwing for 317 yards and 1 TD on 26-34 passing.
3. The Bengals’ passing game is off to another slow start in 2023 as Burrow continues to recover from a calf strain, but he and Jamar Chase are heading into Week 4 with an opportunity to right the ship against a Titans’ secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG
allowed, 29th in YPA and 25th in passes of 10+ yards. Cincy has looked disjointed on offense, ranking 32nd in YPP, 30th in early down success rate and 27th in passing YPG, but Burrow and Chase improved their timing in Week 3 against the Rams. Chase caught
12 balls for 141 yards on 15 targets. Burrow threw for 270 yards on 22-37 passing against Tennessee in December 2022, while Tee Higgins caught 7 balls for 114 yards; Jamar Chase DNP in that matchup. Deshaun Watson threw for 289 yards in Week 3 vs
TEN – he has averaged 215 passing YPG in his last 5 games dating back to 2022.
4. The Eagles have relied heavily on their run game the last two weeks specifically, going for 259 yards on the ground against Minnesota in Week 2 and another 201 in Week 3 vs
Tampa, who ranked 2nd in the league in rushing YPG allowed heading into the MNF matchup. Philly ranks 2nd in the league in rushing play percentage. Washington has a strong front 7 that has excelled in rushing the passer, but they rank 26th in YPC and 25th
in runs of 10+ allowed. James Cook rushed for 98 yards on just 15 carries in Week 3 (6.5 YPC), helping the Bills to a total of 168 yards on the ground. This is looking like a great spot for De’Andre Swift to pick up yardage in significant chunks – Philly should look to
feed the hot hand who ran for 175 yards and 1 TD on 28 carries (6.2 YPC) against Minny and 130 yards on 16 carries (8.1 YPC) against TB.
5. Seattle’s offense is off to a hot start, ranking 4th in EPA/play, 7th in series conversion rate, 10th in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate and 3rd in RZ trips. They’ll be facing a Giants’ defense that has been very bad to start the season, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency, series conversion rate and YPP, 30th in EPA/play, 28th in rushing YPG and 27th in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards. Seattle has posted 37 points of offense in back to back weeks, racking up 393 yards against Detroit in Week 2 and 425 yards against Carolina in Week 3. Kenneth Walker is tied for 5th in runs of 10+ yards through 3 weeks,
and should have plenty of opportunity to make an impact in this game, ranking 7th among RB’s in carry share at 62%.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers’ offense are not the reason for their 1-2 record – this offense ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 4th in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG and YPA and 4th in passes of 10+ yards. LV’s defense ranks 20th in defensive efficiency,
26th in EPA/play, 31st in series conversion rate and 23rd in YPP. In Week 2, Josh Allen torched this secondary, finishing 31-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD’s. The loss of Mike Williams should lead to even more targets for Keenan Allen, who ranks 2nd in the
league in targets, 3rd in receiving YPG through 3 weeks with 134. Allen caught 18 balls for 215 yards on a ridiculous 20 targets in Week 3. The Raiders added Marcus Peters on the offseason, but he starts alongside a rookie in Jakorian Bennett. Expect Kellen Moore
to move Keenan Allen around and target him through the air early and often, as the Chargers are likely without RB Austin Ekeler in Week 4 – they ran the ball just 13 times for 19 yards in Week 3 in his absence.
The Colts won outright in Week 3 in Baltimore, but benefitted from rainy conditions and an injured Baltimore receiving corps that helped to cover up their young and extremely suspect secondary. Indy held Lamar to just 202 yards through the air yet still ranks 26th in passing YPG allowed and 23rd in YPA with an upcoming matchup in their dome against Stafford, who ranks 4th in passing YPG, 10th in YPA and 2nd in passes of 10+ yards. Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell came back down to earth on the road in Week 3, but
this Rams passing attack is positioned for a big day on Sunday in Indy.
