Here is what I about Cincinnati’s 31-10 win over the Browns in Week 9:
Take Cincinnati tonight -12 home versus the Browns.
Tonight’s play is on me. #Throwbackthursday to the first 4 weeks of the season when I gave my picks to everybody for free as I launched this site and went 15-8 ATS on those free picks. Newcomers, welcome.
I haven’t played a single double-digit favorite all season…until tonight. The write-up below will explain why.
Spread Investor run: 8-1 ATS the last 2 weeks.
3-1 ATS Week 8
5-0 ATS Week 7
Week 8: 3-1
Kansas City – 3 WINNER (KC won by 35. Who the hell else recommended a play on the 2-5 Chiefs?)
New England -2.5 & Seattle PK teaser – WINNER (NE won by 29)
St. Louis -1.5 & New England -2.5 teaser- WINNER (Rams won by 21)
Seattle -5 – LOSS
Week 7 : 5-0
Rams -7 – WINNER (Rams won by 18)
Panthers-3 – WINNER (Panthers won by 11)
Jets +8.5 – WINNER
Seattle PK & Arizona -2.5 teaser – WINNER
St. Louis & Arizona teaser – WINNER
Several reasons to like Cincinnati tonight:
- Cincinnati has one of the best passing games in the league and the Browns just gave up 24 points in the 2nd half alone at home to the Cardinals in Week 8. Carson Palmer had 4 TDs + 374 yards vs the Browns and now Joe Haden is out, leaving Cleveland Head Coach Mike Pettine to scramble for someone else to cover AJ Green. Dalton should be able to throw the ball on the Browns all night tonight.
- Cleveland just let Todd Gurley run for 128 yards & 2 TDs on them in Week 7 in a 24-6 loss versus the Rams. I predicted the Rams big in that game and released them as a play. The Bengals should be able to run the ball with Jeremy Hill better than they have all season – Hill has struggled a bit but had a positive step last week rushing for 4 yards per carry with 60 yards on 15 carries. If Hill struggles, Giovani Bernard has played well in Hill’s absence (averaging 5.6 yards per carry), so Cincinnati should be able to figure something out in the run game.
- Cincinnati destroyed Johnny Manziel last year 30-0 and held him to 80 yards with 0 TD & 2 INT. He looked awful. People are saying Manziel is a much better QB this year. Really? What are they judging that off of – his 28-14 win over the Titans? Fact-check: the Titans are 1-6 and are f*ing terrible. I re-watched that game and Manziel’s game went something like this:
- A nice bomb to Travis Benjamin for a TD on his first pass. It was not a consistent drive.
- 2 decent passes on the next drive, nothing impressive.
- 4 for 10 with a ton of bad incompletions after that. He hasn’t started in any other game this year. I’m not impressed. He may be better than last season, but he’s not better than this Bengals defense. Not with Geno Atkins rushing him and with 2 of his WRS out this game (Andrew Hawkins & Brian Hartline).
4. Cincinnati is hungry. I see it more and more each game. They haven’t had a letdown yet this season and are undefeated at 7-0. All of the knocks against them over the years were that Andy Dalton held them back. Those days are gone and Dalton has led this team to several 4th quarter wins. Not to mention that the dude has 15 TDs and 4 INTs.
The other knock against them is that they don’t play well in primetime. Well, how about this: last year they played the Broncos on Monday Night Football and destroyed Peyton Manning in a home win over Denver.
They got that monkey off of their back and are ready to prove the doubters wrong once again as tonight is their first prime-time game of the year.
Watch the scoreboard light up for Cincinnati. 30-13 Cincy wins this one. Play them for 5 units.
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