-The Jaguars have given up 28 points or more in 7 of their 15 games this year. Those 7 teams average just 23.6 ppg this year so the Jaguars have a tendency to give up much more than a team typically scores. They play the Texans and have already lost to them by 11 earlier this year. The Texans are -6.5, still need to win to lock up the division, and the Jaguars are done and have lost their last 2 games by 11 & 6.
-Home teams in the night/flex game on Week 17 are 7-3 straight-up & ATS the last 10 years. All 7 of those games have been won by 10+ points. The Packers are home vs the Vikings in this spot and you can make the argument that the Vikings are hotter right now but this situation certainly favors the Packers at -3.
-Road favorites of 10+ points in Week 17 (Patriots & Steelers this week) have covered just 18% of games the last 20 years. HOWEVER, it’s hard to ignore that the Dolphins have scored 15 points or less in 5 of their 7 home games this year. The Patriots coming off a loss puts the Pats in a good position to potentially bust this trend.
–The Broncos have scored 17 points or less in regulation in 4 of Brock Osweiler’s 6 starts yet they’re laying a hefty 9.5 points to the Chargers. San Diego has nothing to play for but Phillip Rivers always plays hard and I’m certainly looking at grabbing 9.5 in a division game, especially that the Chargers are 3-0 ATS their last 3.