Cowboys +7 at Rams — 3 units, EVEN
Dallas matches up well with the Rams – on defense they hit hard and don’t give up many big plays, and on offense they can run the ball on a defense that gave up 5.1 yards/carry this season.
I’m going to assume Gurley is 100% healthy with the extra time off. He’s hard for any defense to stop, but the Cowboys’ run defense is very good – Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch, Demarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory and Taco Charlton don’t get talked about enough for how good they make this front 7. They just held Chris Carson to 13 carries for 20 yards last week after Seattle has been running all over teams. They also held Kamara and Ingram to a combined 63 yards on 18 carries.
A lot of this game will be on Goff’s shoulders. Without safety-valve Cooper Kupp, his production has dropped a bit. The Rams will have their moments on offense and will challenge Dallas’s defense but Goff has shown that if you hurry and hit him throughout the game, he can make mistakes. He made mistakes against the Bears and the Eagles and lost both. The Cowboys’ defense will come into this game with a ton of confidence.
Amari Cooper is going to get double-teamed and Dallas’s passing options are limited, but the Rams’ run defense has been consistently bad. Chris Carson (who the Boys just shut down) had 116 yards on 19 carries against the Rams earlier this year and the Seahawks had a total of 273 rush yards against the Rams in Week 10. The Rams’ run defense couldn’t stop the Bears in Chicago even when Trubisky played terrible – Howard and Cohen combined for 170 yards on 28 carries. I don’t see how the Rams stop Zeke consistently tonight. I can see Dallas’s offense being stale at times but a few big RPOs and timely third down plays from Dak can help. Dak showed last week he can make plays when it counts.
I think this is a really close game that comes down to the last 4-5 minutes. Dallas has held 8 of their last 9 opponents to 23 points or less and I think they have a really good shot to keep the Rams to 26 or less. Cowboys will have a chance in this game that will have a lot of Dallas fans in LA. I’m grabbing the 7 points and stepping behind the three-point line here.
