This is my favorite prop of the week and I would play 2.5 units up to 21.
The Titans use their RBs a lot more in the pass game now that Arthur Smith left and Todd Downing is the OC. The last time Downing was an OC was in 2017 with the Raiders and his RBs accounted for 23% of the team’s receptions. Henry has 12 receptions already in 3 games and 105 yards. Last year he had 19 receptions the entire season. Now he’s averaging 4 receptions and 35 yards per game and those games were with Julio and AJ Brown. Henry is 4th on the team in targets and now the top two targets are out. The Jets defense gave up 11 receptions, 93 yards to Carolina’s RBs and 7 receptions, 47 yards vs the Pats. Tennessee ran the same play action screen to Henry two weeks in a row – one went for 15 yards vs the Colts, the other for 16 vs Seattle. It’s just another easy way to get Henry out in space where he can pickup full speed. Mike Vrabel talked in his press conference that Tannehill being able to lean on Derrick Henry in the short pass game has helped them a lot and usually when he goes to Henry it’s picked up first downs. Henry’s averaging 8.1 yards per target so if things stay somewhat consistent we can cash this in 2-3 receptions. If we happen to not hit this know one thing – this number is soft and the books are setting a line based on how Henry was used in the past and haven’t adjusted. I’d come right back again if we lose it and bet it next week vs the Jags but I think we’ll cash this before the middle of the 4th.