Raptors/Celtics ML parlay -147
2.5 units.
I think this should be priced somewhere around -165.
Boston: Sixers have the edge inside but there’s a dropoff on defense without Simmons and he defended Tatum for most of their matchups so the Celtics offense should open up. Philadelphia also had a huge size advantage vs the Spurs in the bubble and needed a last second three to beat them by two even though they shot 53% from the field and 45% from three. They gave up 43 points in the 4th to the Spurs and 46 in the 4th to the Pacers. I don’t trust this team for 4 quarters with their inconsistency and their defense in the 2nd unit. No minute restriction for Kemba and if this is a close game late I trust the much better coach and team with better guard play to get the job done in Game 1.
Toronto: For as good as BK has looked in the bubble they shoot a ton of threes (40.4/game, 4th most in the bubble) and Toronto has the best 3 point defense in the league. The Nets shot 38% from three in their 5 wins and with more missed threes expected Toronto should be able to get out and run. The Nets can’t handle Toronto inside with Ibaka, Gasol and Siakam and the Nets’ defense is nowhere near as good as their offense. 3 of their 5 wins in the bubble were vs teams who didnt have much to play for that day (Bucks, Clippers, Magic) and the other two wins were vs terrible defenses (Kings, Wizards). I contemplated laying 9.5 but passed because there’s a chance the Raptors start slow after clinching early, but I think at some point in this game they go on a run and open this up.
