I will be covering the Over/Under portion of Sunday’s games every week from here on out. Every week there is value in the totals portion of the NFL card and there is no reason why we shouldn’t take advantage of them the sharp way.
A couple of quick hitters:
I) There is an incredible trend going on right now. The team who plays at home the Thursday night prior to the current week has seen their game total go Over 27-6-1 dating back to 2013. That’s good for 82%. The reason behind this is because the home team has an extra couple of days to prepare and doesn’t have any extra travel (like the road team they played) and seemingly uses the time to add some new elements to their offensive game-plan for the following week. I personally would never think that would lead to this strong of a trend but I’m not going to fight the #s here.
This year’s Thursday Night home teams have been: Patriots, Chiefs, and Giants
- Week 1 TNF home team =Patriots. Week 2 result: 40-32 W over the Bills, Over (72 pts)
2. Week 2 TNF home team =Chiefs. Week 3 result: 28-38 L vs. the Packers, Over (66 pts)
This week’s trend favors the Over 46 in the NYG-BUF game as the Giants are coming off the Week 3 TNF game.
II) Primetime games have seen the Over go 4-7 this year. After last year’s 34-16 Over mark there has been a significant cool down this year.
There are 2 other totals worth a recommendation:
- HOU @ ATL UNDER 47
Houston is a defensive minded team and I think this total is way too high. Julio Jones is a stud but Atlanta’s passing options are very limited beyond him (Roddy White has just 4 receptions on the year and is not what he used to be). Houston went into Dallas last year and held Dez & co. to 17 points in regulation. They did the same thing to Andrew Luck in Indy (a 17-10 loss). Houston’s front 7 is too good for them to have many shootouts this year and I see this game staying in the low 40s.
2. KC @ CIN OVER 45
Cincinnati has scored 24 or more points in their 3 games and it could have been even more had they not had some fluke turnovers deep in the redzone. Their athletes are scary good down the field as AJ Green, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Eifert make Andy Dalton’s job a lot easier than most QBs have it. The Chiefs have eclipsed 20 in their first 3 games despite getting much production out of Jeremy Maclin. I think Maclin can only get more comfortable in this offense and this is a big game for KC. Play the Over.
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