The public is all over the Seahawks to beat the Vikings this weekend but the Vikings are actually the better bet…
Everyone loves the Seahawks. I took them last week at +7 vs the Cards but know this: The Cards were basically going through the motions last week as I said they couldn’t advance in the standings if Carolina beat Tampa Bay. Arizona really didn’t see Carolina going down to Tampa so they were complacent whereas the Seahawks played hard after their loss to the Rams.
So now is the right time to go against Seattle because:
A) This spread is inflated massively because of the media pumping Seattle. This line would mean Seattle would be -12 in Seattle and that’s absurd.
B) Minnesota holds teams to 18.8 ppg and we are getting 6 points.
C) Seattle is hot but their recent schedule:
Arizona: Arizona was complacent
Rams: The loss everyone seems to have forgotten.
Browns: Win (big deal)
Ravens: Win (big deal)
Vikings: Win 38-7 BUT here’s what you need to know: Vikings had 4 defensive starters out that will all be playing. Adding insult to injury – LB Anthony Barr, who was supposed to spy Wilson got hurt in warmups 10 mins before the game. That really screwed the gameplan. Even worse- Safety Harrison Smith got hurt on the first series! Complete gameplan change and momentum led to the Seahawks rout. Plus AP had just 8 carries so I anticipate a change in that department.
Prior to that the Seahawks beat the Steelers and were VERY fortunate – the Steelers made some awful turnovers that led to a 10 point swing. Then Seattle scored a meaningless TD. That game wasn’t that impressive for Seattle. Before that, the Seahawks were struggling bad.
Minnesota will need Teddy to move the chains on short throws and not hold on to the ball but they really need their D to step up …and that they can do.
Here’s a compelling trend: Teams on Wild Card weekend coming off a double digit win as an underdog (Seattle winning by 30 at +7 last week) are just 5-15 ATS all time. Reason being – the spread is inflated for these teams and the other team has the underdog edge for being disrespected.
Also – road favorites in Wild Card weekend history are 6-15-1 ATS.
Fact: It will be one of the coldest games in NFL history with a low of -9 degrees in Minnesota today. In the 5 coldest NFL games in history QBs have a 48.7% completion percentage.
Vikings +6 for 5 units.
Good news: this crystal ball isn’t done telling you about how to profit this weekend. I have two more plays this weekend both bigger than this Vikings play that can be bought here for just $40
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