Wild Card Weekend ’16 – Packers PK @ Redskins
Packers were having a down year and the public was in love with Kirk Cousins and his 23:3 TD:INT ratio run to end the season. Spread Investor clients and Barstool Sports’ Lock of the Week had the Packers:
PACKERS PK (5 units):
I released this trend on my Twitter account earlier this week: Teams in the playoffs who improved their win total by 5 or more wins from the year prior are just 1-12 SU & ATS in Wild Card weekend. This applies to the Washington Redskins this weekend who had 4 wins last season compared 9 this season. They are currently a PK vs the Packers. I’m very picky with the trends that I use in my handicapping but this one has significance. The reasoning behind this trend is this:
A) Teams in this situation have never been in the spotlight before, so a playoff atmosphere is new to them.
B) The public is in love with the new flavor of the week aka the Redskins who have been hot down the stretch and it makes them overvalued in this spot. They should be a short underdog here.
The Packers certainly aren’t very good this year and I am certainly not overlooking Kirk Cousins (I bet on Washington twice in December and won both times vs PHI & BUF when the public was heavily against Washington) but successful sports betting requires keeping up with the betting market and knowing when to bet on a team and when to bet against them. Now seems the right time to bet against the Redskins.
Other facts:
Washington has played 8 non-playoff teams their last 10 games and have benefitted from that schedule, going 7-1 vs teams with a combined 44-68 record.
Green Bay, on the other hand, has played 5 playoff teams in that same span who have a combined 62-18 record.
Washington is 26th worst in the league on D with pass yards/att and thats with 8 non-playoff teams the L10!
Green Bay has a very good pass D at least and is 9th best in the league in pass yds/att. They’re also 5th best in sacks. Sam Shields and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix will be covering Desean and Jordan Reed. Look out for pressure on Cousins.
Rolling with the Pack’s D against Kirk Cousins’ inexperience here. Packers PK 5units.
