3-0 ATS Wild Card Weekend (CIN +3, MIN +4.5, GB PK)
12-4 ATS the last 4 weeks
7-1 ATS the last 2 weeks for +33.9 units
58-42 ATS this season for +49.3 units
8-2 ATS Super Bowl record lifetime
It’s been an amazing run that I plan on continuing today. Every week when I handicap games I look for certain angles – whether it’s stats, situations, or trends – that apply directly to the situation at hand. You have to filter through a lot of BS trends to find ones that actually make sense. Take for example last week – I found that road favorites in the Wild Card round were 6-15-1 ATS coming into last weekend. Case in point – fading the road favorites (KC -4, PIT -3, SEA -4.5) profited as the road favorites went 1-2 ATS.
1. Home teams in the Divisional Round are 12-4 SU the past 4 seasons but just 6-10 ATS. There have been a lot of home teams winning but in tight fashion.
2. Seattle will be playing 3 road games in a row. This is key – remember, their two Super Bowl runs were both with home-field advantage. Last week was the first time Seattle played on the road in the playoffs (except for neutral Super Bowl games) in 3 seasons. Also the start time for SEA-CAR is 1PM which is 10 AM Seattle time. This situation favors the Panthers.
I was featured on Barstool Sports this week for Divisional Weekend after I went 3-0 last week when they brought me on. I released a play on the Panthers that I want to give to you for free:
To sum up the full analysis on Carolina:
- Carolina can win at the line of scrimmage: Seahawks have the 28th worst sack percentage in the NFL and the Panthers have one of the best front 7s in the league.
- Seahawks are 26th worst in the NFL at covering tight ends as Greg Olsen had 7 catches for 131 yards in the last matchup. The Panthers can exploit this.
- Seattle’s wins lately (especially over Minnesota and a complacent Cardinals) have overvalued them on the pointspread.
I have two plays today:
- Chiefs-Patriots – 5 unit
- Packers- Cardinals – 3 unit teaser on the side & total.