2-1 ATS Divisional Weekend

Carolina -1.5 (5 unit) = WIN

Arizona -1.5/U 55.5 (3 unit teaser) = WIN

Chiefs +6 = LOSS

Here’s what I said in my Free Weekly Tipsheet for the Divisional Round:

1. Home teams in the Divisional Round are 12-4 SU the past 4 seasons but just 6-10 ATS. There have been a lot of home teams winning but in tight fashion. Both the Cardinals (-7.5) and Broncos (-7.5) won SU but failed to cover the spread.

2. Seattle will be playing 3 road games in a row. This is key – remember, their two Super Bowl runs were both with home-field advantage. Last week was the first time Seattle played on the road in the playoffs (except for neutral Super Bowl games) in 3 seasons. Also the start time for SEA-CAR is 1PM which is 10 AM Seattle time. This situation favors the Panthers. Carolina got off to a 31-0 start as Seattle was sluggish to say the least coming into this game. Carolina won 31-24.

 

I was featured on Barstool Sports this week for Divisional Weekend after I went 3-0 on Wild Card Weekend when they brought me on. Here is what I said about the Panthers:

 

To sum up the full analysis on Carolina: 

  • Seahawks are 26th worst in the NFL at covering tight ends as Greg Olsen had 7 catches for 131 yards in the last matchup. The Panthers can exploit this. Greg Olsen had 6 catches for 77 yards & 1 TD.
  • Carolina can win at the line of scrimmage: Seahawks have the 28th worst sack percentage in the NFL and the Panthers have one of the best front 7s in the league. Russel Wilson was pressured all day and threw a pick 6 with pressure on him, making this a 14-0 Panthers lead.
  • Seattle’s wins lately (especially over Minnesota and a complacent Cardinals) have overvalued them on the pointspread.
  • Seattle is starting this game at 10 AM Seattle time and is flying cross-country for their 3rd road game in a row. Fatigue and jetlag have them at a disadvantage.