Admittedly I did not look into this game closely all week because I had a big slate of games on Sunday. However, I’ve looked a lot closer the past few hours and I see enough signs that point to the Giants +4. I’m releasing this for 4 units. All plays rated 1-10 units in order of confidence.

I bet the Giants in Week 3 last season after they blew 2 games in the first 2 weeks. Before that game I knew I was risking being viewed as an idiot for backing the Giants after an awful start to the season. The Giants ended up beating the Redskins by 11 in Week 3 as 3.5 point favorites. I’m risking being viewed as idiot again with this play tonight but I’m taking my shot.

McKinnon is averaging 2.9 ypc for the Vikings and Minnesota has only 2 WRs who average more than 42 receiving yards/ game. Bradford should get more comfortable in this system as time goes on but the Vikings have been limited on offense so far, even with AP.


Headline scare is that the Giants are only dressing up 6 DBs. That is definitely a concern because if the Giants have another injury in the secondary they’re really in bad shape. But Janoris Jenkins will matchup with Diggs (108 ypc) and Leon Hall & Landon Collins can split time on Kyle Rudoph (55 ypc). Beyond that there hasn’t been much offensive power from the Vikings. Leon Hall has always been a CB and is technically a CB on the depth chart but he has been playing safety for the Giants and will fill in for the injuries the Giants have. The Giants NEED to create pressure along the front 4, which they didn’t do last week. They played weak vs the Redskins last week but are good enough to take that bad performance and turn it around.

Eli will have to be smart, that’s obvious. He’s obviously another concern for this play. The Giants’ gameplan should be limit the run (which teams have done) and pressure Sam Bradford on 3rd downs. If the Giants defense can do this then Eli won’t be forced to throw deep very often. The Giants have already beaten a potent Cowboys’ offense and held the Saints to just 13 points. Jennings and Vareen are both out which isn’t ideal but Darkwa looked very good last week and will be backed up by serviceable Bobby Rainey.

Vikings have been winning by creating turnovers (+8 turnover margin), forcing sacks (8 sacks vs Cam), and special teams (a special teams TD vs the Panthers made a 15 point day into a 22 point day). The Giants’ O-line has done a pretty good job up until this point but this is their biggest test so far. I’ll say this – the Vikings are highly viewed in the betting market bc of the win over Carolina and because they’ve been on fire ATS but yesterday showed Carolina has their own issues along the O-line and the Vikings have won a lot of those games as underdogs. If the Giants’ O-line keeps up with the above average level they have been playing at then the Giants should have a chance to compete all game and make these 4 points worth something. The Giants’ defense is too good to not have a takeaway in 3 games, I’m hoping they get at least one tonight.

It should be noted, even though it has nothing to do with the matchup for tonight, but Monday Night Football favorites are 5-15-1 ATS dating back to Week 1 of 2015. 


Taking a chance on the Giants to redeem themselves in a defensive game where the 4 points can mean a lot. NYG +4,  4 units.

Note: 55% of the public is on the Vikings while 58% of the overall money handle on the Giants according to as of 6:30 PM ET.