A couple of things to look at before betting the NFL in Week 5….
- The Cardinals will be without Carson Palmer & Chris Johnson for Thursday Night’s game. The 49ers are dealing with their own injury issues though as NaVorro Bowman is out for the year and 2016 7th overall pick DE DeForest Buckner is out for this game. Drew Stanton threw 2 INTs in relief of Palmer last week but the 49ers allowed Ezekiel Elliot to do whatever he wanted once Bowman went down.
- The Vikings are currently -6/-6.5 across the board in Vegas and that matchup will feature Xavier Rhodes vs DeAndre Hopkins. Rhodes held OBJ last week to 3 catches and 23 yards. Will Fuller has been the beneficiary of the double teams D Hop has seen through the first 4 games – Fuller has 19 catches for 323 yards on the year and 3 games of 80+ yards. The Vikings are a whopping 18-3 ATS since the start of 2015 but it has to be noted that they were underdogs in 10 of those 21 games and this is the highest spread they’ve had in 2 years.
- Miami is -3.5 home vs TEN and is coming off another embarrassing performance last week vs the Bengals. They are 1-3 and have had 3 extra days to prep for this game coming off of TNF. Will Fuller was able to have a solid game vs Tennessee with all the attention on D Hop so the Dolphins will likely lean on DeVante Parker often in the pass game here.
- Patriots are -10.5 basically across the board with a few 11s out there. For a team receiving 90% of betting tickets in Vegas this line has not moved. The noteworthy news for this game (aside from Brady wanting to kill every secondary in the NFL) is that Gronk isn’t right and his hamstring hasn’t rehabbed as expected. The Pats are still loaded and the top dog but this information has to be accounted for before bettors line up to bet the mortgage on -10.5
- The Bills are +2.5 @ LA. Fun fact: if you teased Buffalo 6 points in every game from the start of 2015 they would’ve covered their part of the teaser 15 out of 20 times. The Bills surprised me last week with their offense vs New England. Without Sammy Watkins this team was impressive and Tyrod Taylor is the type of QB that doesn’t letdown – he’s ultra competitive and I’m starting to believe he raises the level of play for the rest of the team with his leadership. The Rams’ D is the real deal – they tackle so well and held Arizona & Seattle to a combined 16 points. The UNDER in this game opened at 40 and has moved down to 39.5. Rex Ryan coached teams are infamous for laying eggs after big wins (see the Jets in 2013 losing by 40 @ Cincy the week after beating the Pats) so the Bills’ level of focus this week will likely determine the outcome of this game.
- The Eagles are coming off a bye and are -3 @ Detroit. Detroit will likely be without the heart of their defense again without DeAndre Levy and Ziggy Ansah, making the matchup vs Wentz interesting. The Lions have been a much better team at home the past few years and you have to wonder if the Eagles’ bye helped or hurt them so early in the year and off such a big win. The injuries to Detroit though are pretty bad.
- The Colts (1-3) are -4.5 home to the Bears this week. Chuck Pagano is on the hot seat and the Colts have looked awful on defense, losing again last week to the Jaguars. The Colts are the only team to play in London and then opt out of taking the bye the following week. A lot of travel and not much rest, but the Colts are desperate and should be dialed in with Vontae Davis coming back. The Bears’ run game looked good last week without Langford but that was vs the Lions without 2 of their best defenders.
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4 unit play on the Cardinals-49ers game here with a breakdown of which injuries are most important when betting this game and a film breakdown on how the 49ers D should do vs Drew Stanton.