1. Jags @Bears – Jags struggle on the road but are coming of a BYE. Hoyer surprisingly has thrown for 300+ yards in his last 3 games but I dont have a real feel for this.


2. Falcons @ Hawks – Man I want to take the Falcons, but I can’t. SEA off a BYE and Atlanta b2b West Coast trips. Quinn used to coach SEA as DC and should have a great gameplan. Lot of points for the Falcons who are a top 4 NFC team in my opinion


3. Steelers @ Fins – the road is the only time one should get scared to bet the Steelers bc they’re 5-9 ATS their last 14 times as a road fave. Lost at Philly on the road by 31. Lost to Ryan Mallette @ BAL Week 16 last year when they needed a win for the playoffs. Steelers are sitting pretty a top the division and have the Pats next week, the Ravens the following, and the suddenly sexy Cowboys after that. If ever there was a time for the Steelers to lose focus, it’s this game. But I don’t have the balls to bet the Fins. 


4. Browns – Titans – pass. Browns’ offense with Kessler is better than people think but the Browns’ defense is the problem. TEN should win the trenches but I’m not laying 7.


5. Jets/Cards – Cards had extra rest to get things right and Palmer will be back. Bowles needs to create pressure with the front 7 every game and gamble upfront bc his secondary sucks. Look for the Jets to be aggressive on Palmer as that’s there only way of beating the Cards (that + leaning on Bowles’ knowledge of the Cards from coaching them in the past).

6. Boys @ Pack – Can’t bet against Dak anymore with him being zoned in trying to win the starting job as Romo gets back to full health. I analyzed how I can pass up on GB laying just 4 in Lambeau but Dallas should want this game badly after losing here in the playoffs 2 years ago and I’m NOT fading the Boys until further notice.
4 plays released for the Sunday card, available here.

12-7 on the season
30-13 NFL run since last December
Winner Thursday on San Diego

Follow on Twitter @spreadinvestor for live updates