36-16-1 (69.3%) in the NFL since going full time last December.

18-10-1 this season and 7-3-1 the last 2 weeks.

This is what subscribers were sent before last night’s game…

Key thing to know: Broncos have held 8 of the last 11 teams in Denver to 20 points or less. 


The 3 who have busted that trend are the Pats last year (24), the Chiefs last year (29), and the Falcons this year (23) but the Chiefs had 4 INTs on an injured Manning, the Pats are the Pats, and the Falcons have a unique matchup edge by being able to put Tevin Coleman in the slot vs LBs.

I think the Broncos’ defense will be too much for Brock at home and the Denver offense starts clicking again with Siemian back, Kubiak back, and two key run blockers healthy again.

Watch out for:


1) Texans on 3rd downTexans are just 25% this season on 3rd downs on the road. Granted it was vs NE and MIN but DEN will be just as difficult.



2) Texans RB Tyler Ervin. Drafted to be more of a slot receiver/Dexter McCluster role for the team and Bill O’brien will definitely look to use him and Lamar Miller in the passing game like the Falcons were able to do. But everyone’s blowing out of proportion how well the Falcons did vs Denver – Matt Ryan was 15/28 that day with just 1 TD and Julio Jones was held to 2 catches for 29 yards. JULIO JONES. Tevin Coleman had 2 huge plays (1 for a TD) and he finished with 132 yards. Everybody else on the Falcons finished with no more than 3 catches and 43 yards so Denver as a whole did a pretty good job. The problem vs the Falcons was Paxton Lynch throwing a big INT deep in Denver territory and getting sacked at bad times. Trevor Siemian isn’t as turnover prone. I also think media sensation has made Denver’s offense out to be inept or something – Trevor Siemian played 3 full games before getting hurt vs TB and he had 5 TDs 3 INTs and was averaging 252 ypg. He’ll be fine for tonight.


3) Denver’s run game . Broncos will have a tough time this year when they dont establish the run but fortunately they got Virgil Green and Stephenson back last week to help in run blocking. Booker’s also been a great change of pace back for CJ Anderson. Denver should do a better job running the ball tonight.

4) Brock in general : I DO think the Texans have talent on offense…. a lot of it.  The problem is Brock forces too many throws and Will Fuller drops too many passes. Fuller can burn anyone but he’s dropped 3 huge passes that I’ve seen so far. D Hop has 56 yards or less in 4 of his 6 games and Denver’s D hasn’t given any reason to believe that #1 WRs can go off on them. Jalen Strong averages just 30 ypg and Miller’s been quiet. Denver beats up on QBs they don’t know that well I think they can force Brock into at least 2 turnovers. Houston’s O line is good but Von Miller wins almost every matchup by the end of the night.


Look for the Denver defense to unload on Brock all night and for the Broncos’ offense to get back in rhythm now that they’re healthy. 



Broncos won 27-9

Brock Osweiler was 22/41 with 131 yards, 0 TDs and 3.19 ypa

Broncos had 190 rushing yards

D Hop had 36 yards

Will Fuller had a drop

Broncos have now held 9 of their last 12 opponents to 20 points or less in Denver. 


Follow on Twitter @spreadinvestor. About to go on a heater – 7-3-1 the last two weeks + 18-10-1 this season + 36-16-1 since going full time last December.