- Bills +2.5 @ Cincinnati: This line opened at +4 and moved down quickly below the key number 3 and it sits at 2.5 right now. The Bills are coming off their BYE and arguably their best performance of the season in a tight 31-25 loss in Seattle on Monday Night Football. Cincinnati is still struggling to put together a complete 60 minute performance as they lost last week on MNF off their BYE and are sitting at an ugly 3-5-1 record. The key injury in this game is the Bills starting C Eric Wood, who broke his leg in Seattle and is done for the year. His backup struggled big time in relief and that might be enough to make the 2.5 a tough call. You should know that if you teased the Bills in every game this season they would have hit their half of the teaser 8 of 9 times (they’re 5-4 ATS in those games).
LEAN: Tease the Bills up to 8.5
2. Titans +2.5 @ Indianapolis: This is another game where the underdog’s line dropped from the opener as money has been pouring in on Tennessee, both public and sharp. People are buying in to the Mariota hype and ignoring the Colts’ dominant trends. It’s no secret the Colts have won 10 straight over the Titans but you have to play contrarian and argue that most of those games were when the Titans’s roster was a much weaker version of the current one. The Colts give up 114 rush yards per game and facing DeMarco Murray is never easy. This game will come down to how efficient Mariota is on 3rd downs because the Titans had a shot to upset the Colts in the first matchup but Mariota made some poor throws on some open targets. Both teams are healthier coming into the rematch and if the Titans can control time-of-possession then they’ll have a shot.
LEAN: Titans +3 (1/2 point bought)
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