The Vikings square off with the Lions to kick off Thanksgiving with a 12:30 PM ET start time. The Vikings are coming off a 30-24 win over the Cardinals on Sunday while the Lions are coming off a 26-19 win over the Jags. The line is set right now (4PM ET Wednesday) at Lions -2.5 with the total at 41.5
Both of these offenses are one-dimensional – the Vikings simply just can’t run the ball and neither can the Lions. The Lions ran the ball 21 times on Sunday vs the Jaguars for just 14 yards. They’re putting a lot on Stafford’s shoulders right now and needed a trick play to Eric Ebron on a jet sweep to score one of their TDs Sunday. The average score of the Lions’ last 4 games is just 38.25 ppg and this is a rematch of a game earlier this year that was 10-3 with 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. That game finished 22-16 Lions in overtime.
The Vikings have been catching a lot of flack but, say what you want, Carson Palmer had just 198 yards vs them on Sunday (his lowest output of the season). Kirk Cousins, “How you like me now” Kirk Cousins, had just 262 yards vs this defense (His 3rd lowest output of the season).
The Vikings have been heavy on short passes since they fired Norv Turner and Sam Bradford is completing 75% of his passes over his last 3 games. We all know this offense isn’t explosive so the only explanation for that ridiculous number is that a lot of his throws are coming on quick reads.
I’m expecting another close, low scoring game. Stefon Diggs isn’t likely to play but Adam Thielen filled in nicely and the Vikings won in the one game he missed this year. All these signs point to an Under 41.5 play. If you really want to cash a ticket to start the day, teasing the Vikings to +8.5 and getting the Under to 47.5 should start your Turkey day off with some coin.
My clients & I went 5-0 last week (Saints +4, Under in KC, Under in Rams, and two teasers). Both totals covered by a combined 25 points. I released a play to my clients on both the total and side for the Redskins vs Cowboys game, you can get both here.
Under 45 Chiefs vs Bucs= Win (covers by 9 points)
Under 40 Dolphins= Win (covers by 16 points)
Dolphins have starting C Mike Pouncey and starting LT Branden Albert OUT going up against Aaron Donald and a fast front 7. Jared Goff starting for the Rams is going to be tough enough on their offense as it is and they also have their starting Center out. Gase and Fisher aren’t going to want to take many chances down the field and risk their QBs getting rocked. Heavy dose of runs and short reads, this likely stays in the teens.
Teaser: Titans +8.5/Lions PK = Win
Teaser: Pats/Seahawks = Win