- Jordan Matthews has been ruled OUT for the Eagles today vs the Bengals. With AJ Green already out for the Bengals and both teams struggling to score lately, Under 41.5 in this game is starting to look high.
- The Falcons have moved up to -6 vs the Chiefs despite more public money on KC and KC having a better record. Sharp money is fading the back to back road/post-OT spot for Kansas City here.
3. The Ravens-Dolphins matchup features two great pass rushes going up against each other. With the Ravens not topping 21 points in 4 of their last 5 games the Under 41.5 looks strong in this game.
4. The Saints average 34 ppg in the Superdome this year. The Lions defensive numbers (giving up 21.6 ppg) suggests they have a pretty strong defense but they’ve played below average offenses every week the past 4 weeks (Vikings 2x, Jaguars, and Texans). Stafford’s going to have to keep up with Brees and this game likely goes OVER 53.5
5. For what it’s worth, rookie QBs in Foxborough during the Brady & Belichek era are 0-7 with a 51 QBR. This New England defense is nothing to worry about and Goff looked really good putting up 3 TDs in the first half last week vs the Saints so I don’t know how much that stat will translate to today’s game
6. Two key injuries in the Bills-Raiders matchup: CB Ronald Darby is out for the Bills and CB DJ Hayden just went on IR for the Raiders. Big blow for both teams as the Bills need Darby for Cooper and Crabtree. The Raiders could certainly use Hayden with Sammy Watkins back for the Bills. Derek Carr will be playing with a glove for his dislocated right pinky and the Raiders are -3 in this game. Tough game to bet on.
7. Paxton Lynch is starting for the Broncos in an awful spot for Denver – they’re coming off a Sunday Night Football OT game and have to travel cross-country for a 1PM start time. The Broncos need this game badly and the Jags are nothing to fear, but the Jags’ pass defense has come on lately and at -3.5 this isn’t exactly the best time for a Broncos bet.
8. There’s an 80% chance of snow in Green Bay for gametime with a wind chill of 25 degrees. This will be the coldest environment for the Texans all season.
12-3 run on paid picks. Full Week 13 card here.