Packers @ Falcons -5.5, 61.5. 3PM ET

  1. 4 major players in this game have injuries (Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison, and Julio Jones) but all 4 are expected to play. Jordy Nelson is the most surprising start out of this group and will be wearing heavy padding to protect his fractured ribs.
  2. This line opened at Falcons -4 but moved up to -5.5 as the week went on. William Hill has booked 62% of tickets on the Packers but 63% of the money has come in on the Falcons
  3. The biggest liability for sportsbooks in this game is the Packers moneyline. At +175 some books have reported having 10 times as many tickets on the Packers moneyline as they do on the Falcons moneyline.
  4. The total has moved from 59 to 61.5. There have been 12 games in NFL history with a total of more than 57. The over is 10-2 in those games.

 

Steelers @ Patriots -6, 50.5. 6:30 PM ET

  1. The Antonio Brown vs Malcolm Butler matchup is going to be key. In the last matchup when Ben Roethlisberger was out and Landry Jones started Brown had 7 catches for 106 yards.
  2. The Steelers lead the league in sacks since Week 10 when Bud Dupree returned and the Steelers will try to bring pressure on Brady as often as they can. How well Brady plays in the short passing game will likely determine the outcome of the game.
  3. Containing Le’Veon Bell is no joke but the Patriots have one of the best run defenses in the league, giving up just 89 rush yards per game. How patient they stay in the gaps will go a long way to keeping Bell from controlling the game.
  4. 66% of spread tickets at William Hill sportsbook are on the Patriots -6 with 85% of the overall money handle even more in favor of the Patriots at -6.
  5. Tom Brady is 5-1 vs Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh teams in his career with a whopping 19:0 TD:INT ratio. Pittsburgh’s defense is playing as strong as they have in a while so a dominant performance will be hard to come by but consistent completions to Dion Lewis and James White out of the backfield mixed with the core passing game of Edelman, Bennett, and Hogan can lead the Patriots to a win on Sunday.