• Teams in bold (#1-5) are my top 5 ATS picks.
  • Official picks (which includes teasers) will be posted on Twitter throughout the weekend.
  • Breakdowns for games #6-15 are just opinions.


  1. Jets vs Raiders -14: Jets offense looked horrible vs Buffalo. Defense was just as bad, giving up 190 rushing yards to the Bills. Marshawn Lynch should have himself a day. Jets CB Buster Skrine was one of the worst corners in the NFL last season and he will spend time on Michael Crabtree. All over the Raiders in a blowout.


  1. Eagles +6 at Chiefs: This spread is inflated after how the Chiefs beat the Pats. The Eagles front 7 is much stronger than the Pats and Tyreke Hill and Kareem Hunt won’t go off like they did last week, even if Ronald Darby doesn’t play. Eric Berry out is big – Chiefs went 2-3 SU + ATS in their last stretch without him (2015). Carson Wentz looked great last week and Zach Ertz can have himself a day without Berry. Eagles O-line is good enough to handle KC’s pass rush. Eagles should keep this game close and will likely have a lead at times.


  1. Patriots -6.5 at Saints: Tom Brady is going to attack two young CBs in this game and Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan should have a lot of success vs. Marcus Lattimore and PJ Williams. PJ Williams let Adam Thielan do whatever he wanted on Monday night. I don’t know who the Saints’ answer for Gronk is and the Vikings had a lot of success running the ball vs the Saints (129 yards). Patriots do not have a strong pass rush and Don’t’a Hightower out doesn’t help, but the Saints offense is still without Willie Snead and their 2 best WRs are Michael Thomas and Tedd Ginn. They are thin at WR behind those 2 and their running game clearly isn’t in rhythm yet. Pats are 7-3 ATS off a loss since 2014.


  1. 49ers at Seahawks -13.5 : Seahawks offense looked shaky vs the Packers but they are a different team at home – last season the Seahawks averaged just 16.3 points per game on the road compared to 28.1 ppg at home. The Seahawks get Thomas Rawles back and should have opportunities after the 49ers allowed 116 yards on the ground vs Carolina. 49ers offense was anemic last week – 3 points at home vs Carolina and Hoyer couldn’t get anything going. What’s his ceiling in Seattle, 13? 16? This is a Seahawks blowout.


  1. Packers +3 at Falcons: Falcons backers will argue they beat the Packers twice last season but the Falcons are adjusting to a new offense without Kyle Shanahan and it showed last week – they put up just 23 points last week in Chicago and were 1 yard away from losing to the Bears. The Packers looked strong on D last week vs the Seahawks and their secondary healthy now looked good. Falcons won’t have as easy of a time on offense in this game vs the Pack. Mike Glennon had success last week vs Atlanta on short passes, completing 65% of his throws for 213 yards 1 TD 0 INT. If this defense gives Rodgers any room he will make them pay for it. This is a Packers outright win in double revenge.


  1. Titans at Jaguars +1.5: The Jags are better than everyone originally thought because their defense is legitimate. They can also run the ball with Leonard Fournette now and hide their obvious flaw in Blake Bortles. The Titans struggled a bit stopping Oakland and Marshawn Lynch. This is going to be a low scoring, ground & pound type of game. This is a hard pass for me.


  1. Browns +9 at Ravens: The Ravens under Harbaugh have been dominant vs rookies (8-0 lifetime with QBs having a 3:11 TD:INT ratio) but Kizer is not like any regular rookie. He reminds me of Deshaun Watson where he has a good head on his shoulders and doesn’t make mistakes like typical rookies do. He will still have a tough time on the road vs. a very strong defense but this is a lot of points to lay with the Ravens after Flacco has admitted he’s not 100% back in rhythm after back surgery. The Browns D gave up just 21 points to the Steelers and 7 of those were on a punt return TD. The Ravens are a ground & pound team. I’m not laying 9 in this game.


  1. Arizona at Indianapolis +7: The Cardinals just got thrown a curveball in their game-planning when the Colts announced Jacoby Brissett as their starting QB Friday morning. He is a heady QB and can make plays on the run. After the Cardinals’ piss-poor performance in Week 1 it’s hard to back them in another 1PM ET start time again this week, even if that opponent is the Colts. Losing David Johnson is big for this team.


  1. Vikings at Steelers -5.5: Tough to argue against either team in this spot – the Steelers are a tough team to go against at home but the Vikings just looked great on Monday Night Football. Probably best to learn a few things about each team from this game.


  1. Redskins at Rams -2.5: Washington’s offense looks great…on paper. Their offense struggled all preseason and those struggles continued vs the Eagles – Cousins had just 5 yards per attempt last week (26th worst out of 30 Week 1 teams). 6.7 yards per attempt is the league median. The Rams’ strong suit is their defense and Head Coach Sean McVay was the Redskins Offensive Coordinator last season so he should have a great gameplan vs. Cousins. This game will come down to how well the Rams could establish the run and stay on the field. Despite the Rams scoring 46 points vs the Colts Todd Gurley had just 40 yards on 19 carries so the Rams have to prove they can get the run game going.


  1. Cowboys at Broncos +2: The Broncos run D looked strong vs Melvin Gordon in Week 1 but they still need to prove they’ve fixed their problems in run defense from 2016. Ezekiel Elliot will provide the biggest test in that department. I don’t know if the Cowboys pass defense is anywhere near as good as they looked vs the Giants. Going to sit back on this one and learn about these two teams.


  1. Dolphins at Chargers -4: Dolphins had to deal with Irma all week. The Texans losing in Week 1 could be a sign that the Hurricane’s aftermath is a distraction to all these players. This is a rematch from a very tight game in 2016 that the Chargers lost on a Rivers pick 6. Until the Chargers prove they can close out games it’s tough laying points with them.


  1. Chicago +7 at Tampa Bay: Another game where Irma’s aftermath could have an effect. The Bucs could be rusty for this game, who knows. The Bears looked a lot better than expected last week – they have a strong front 7 and secondary. There’s a reason you heard about Tarik Cohen all week – he is very fast and produced a lot for Chicago last week. The Bears used Cohen and Howard as passing options out of the backfield. The Bucs are strong on offense but without Doug Martin their both starting RBs average less than 4 yards per carry for their career. If Chicago gets pressure on Winston he could make a key mistake that lets the Bears hang around.


  1. Bills +7 at Panthers : Two good defenses, two run-heavy offenses. This should be a good matchup because the Bills can run the ball effectively and Cam’s arm isn’t 100% yet after that surgery. Both teams can create turnovers in this game. Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott was the Panthers’ Defensive Coordinator for years and should have a good gameplan. Panthers should win but it won’t be as easy as everyone thinks.


  1. Lions +3 at Giants : It looks like OBJ is out again for this one. Hard to back the Giants with the way their offense looked last week. This should be a low scoring game in a rematch of a 2016 game that was a defensive battle the whole way.


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