I think this can be a tough game early in the first half for the Packers to separate themselves because both starting tackles for the Pack are still out. The Pack had to go to OT in order to beat the Bengals and the Bengals were without Tyler Eifert and John Ross. Aaron Rodgers is going to have to get the ball out quickly just like he did in Week 3 but he was still sacked 6 times in that game. The Bears have a lot of pass rushers so I don’t see how Rodgers will get anything easy down the field – he will rely on Jordy, Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison, and Ty Montgomery the most on short routes. Cobb is fully healthy for this game. Jordy has a history of huge games vs the Bears but, because of the injuries on the O-line, might not have many opportunities downfield. Geronimo Allison looked amazing in the win vs Cincinnati and broke 100 yards on 6 catches that were all impressive. The running game for the Packers is still non-existent as they’ve rushed for just 69 yards per game. The Packers can probably reach 27 points in this game but I think anything more than that will be very difficult for them.
The Bears want to run the ball as much as they can. John Fox doesn’t let Mike Glennon take risks and he’s thrown for just 183 yards per game on a ridiculously low 5.1 yards per attempt. Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard make up the entire Bears offense so expect a lot of handoffs and passes to these two out of the backfield. The Packers give up 114 yards per game on the ground so they haven’t exactly been strong in this area and the Bears are going to try to keep the ball away from Aaron Rodgers and play defense with their offense.
The Bears were able to hold the Falcons to 23 and the Steelers to 17, beating them in OT. The Bears’ worst game came at Tampa Bay when Glennon threw a pick 6 and the Bucs won in a rout 29-7.
Bottom line: The Bears will compete in this game if they get the run game going and Rodgers isn’t on the field for as long as normal. If Rodgers is able to play with a lead then it will take the Bears completely out of their gameplan, but that will be hard to do. I’m expecting the Bears to keep things close early and then Rodgers to make enough plays to pull out a win in a game that won’t be one of the better looking games from the Packers.
Pack in a tight one, 20-17
Teaser Packers -0.5 & Under 50.5….1 unit