I’m going to get called out for going against the Patriots again but I really don’t care – the Patriots are without Dont’a Hightower in the middle of the field and that’s going to hurt. Their pass defense is still 32nd in the league and after I lost my top play on the Falcons vs the Pats last week I’m convinced that the Falcons shit the bed that game more than the Patriots dominated.
The Chargers have won 3 in a row and are coming off a 21-0 shutout vs the Broncos last week in a game where Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram dominated from start to finish. The Chargers are the only team in the NFL to have two players with 7.5 sacks or more and they have to feel good knowing the Broncos and Raiders have gotten off to bad starts and the Chiefs have just lost 2 straight. As much as I don’t like fading Brady (who does?) I want to hear someone make an argument that the Patriots’ offensive line will beat the Chargers up front because I’m just not convinced it’s going to happen.
The Chargers are 3-4 and could very easily be 5-2 if their kicker didn’t miss two easy FGs in Weeks 1 & 2 that led to 2 and 3 point losses. We would be having a very different conversation about this game if they made those two field goals.
Phillip Rivers has a lot of weapons on offense – Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon, Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, and Antonio Gates. The Patriots have let 4 different WRs top 99 yards this season and, even though winds are expected to hit 21 MPH today, Rivers should be able to find some mismatches spreading the ball out.
Maybe I’m wrong on the Pats again but everyone’s on them today with 71% of the tickets and at 3-4 ATS I’m not on the Pats bandwagon today like everyone else is.
Chargers +7, 2.5 units
*Plays are rated from 1 to 5 units in order of confidence.