Drew Brees has completed 4.7% less of his passes outdoors than in domes throughout his career. He also throws 0.6 touchdowns less per game, throws for 0.9 yards per attempt less, and gets sacked more often in open stadiums than in domes. His passer rating outdoors is 12.3 lower than in domes (90.9 vs. 103.2)
This game is outdoors at MetLife Sunday.
I lost fading the Giants last week against the Texans as they were able to move up and down the field on the Texans’ secondary despite a shaky offensive line and 3 sacks from JJ Watt. The Saints’ defense has been just as bad as the Texans were last week and they just lost one of their starting cornerbacks – they’re 24th in the NFL in sacks and 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Not exactly numbers that make you believe they can take advantage of the Giants’ bad offensive line. They’re also coming off an overtime game on the road against the Falcons and are now on the 2nd of back-to-back road games. OBJ and Sterling Shepard should have big games and Pat Shurmur could split Saquon out wide like he did for a few key plays last week. It also doesn’t hurt that Shurmur faced the Saints when the Vikings played the Saints in January.
As of now I lean Giants +3.5 but would be a lot more confident if Olivier Vernon, Eli Apple, and Damon Harrison are on the field (all either limited or out at practice yesterday). I’m going to monitor those injuries the next few days.