Redskins +7 (-120) at Saints—MNF
2 units. Plays are rated 1 to 5 units.
Hardly anybody is talking about the Skins right now but they’ve been pretty impressive at 2-1 and the gamefilm backs it up. They’re coming off a BYE and the Saints are a little overvalued on the line in my opinion – their defense is terrible and their offense has been very top heavy relying on Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Getting Ingram back helps the Saints but this offense was just held to 3 points against the Browns through 3 quarters in the Superdome in Week 2. The Redskins pass defense is their strength and their 31-17 win over the Packers isn’t getting any attention because:
1- they went on a BYE right after
2- people assume Rodgers was more hurt than he actually was (this was the week after Rodgers went to OT with Minnesota in a game the refs screwed Green Bay. He was no different vs Washington)
The Saints defense gave up a combined 75% completions to Eli Manning and Tyrod Taylor (after giving up 48 points to Fitzpatrick) and now you have one of the most efficient QBs in Alex Smith going against them. Smith is throwing for 68% completions in a new system and the offense with Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, Vernon Davis, Paul Richardson, Josh Doctson, and (believe it or not) Adrian Peterson looks very fast and efficient. Don’t take my word for it —invest 5 minutes watching the highlights from Wash/GB and let your eyes be the judge. The Redskins loss against the Colts in Week 2 wasn’t too surprising to me personally because Indy’s HC Frank Reich was on the Eagles staff last year and knows the Redskins extremely well. Aside from that, the pass defense looks very good and the offense can really move the ball.
It will be a big night Monday for Brees breaking the yardage record, but aside from that you have a Saints defense giving up a league worst 9.3 yards per pass attempt along with the #28 3rd down defense (45.7%) going against one of the most efficient quarterbacks who will be highly motivated himself with everybody talking about the guy who replaced him in KC. Josh Norman and DJ Swearinger (2 INTs vs Luck) should double Michael Thomas and help limit some of his production the way the Giants just did (4 rec/47 yards). The Saints and Kamara can put up points on anybody but the Skins will have no issues when they have the ball. I’m grabbing 7 points against a defense that can’t stop anyone right now.