Falcons -3 vs Tampa Bay, 1.5 units

Atlanta’s defense has struggled with injuries but this is the one spot I’ll back them – desperate at home at 1-4 going against a 2-2 team in the division who went into their bye week with all sorts of issues. Tampa Bay’s secondary is terrible and can’t stop anybody – 40 points vs the Saints, 30 vs the Steelers, and 48 vs the Bears. Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley will beat the secondary multiple times. I don’t think that Jameis Winston is going to just come in and get in rhythm right away with the offense – he’s turnover prone even when he hasn’t had a layoff like this. The Falcons took the Saints to overtime and lost to the Bengals by 1 on a wild comeback so they can easily be 3-2 right now. This game should be a shootout and that will translate to Jameis Winston having to take more chances down the field. The Falcons have won the last 3 games against Tampa Bay by a combined 10.7 ppg and I’m riding the Falcons to get a much needed win.