Browns moneyline +110 — 1.5 units
Denver’s secondary is banged up – Chris Harris is out along w/ his backup. Broncos were outgained heavily vs LAC and PIT and won bc of turnovers. Baker should have a big game. Cleveland’s O-line has given up just 3 sacks the last 5 games and should be able to hold their own against Von Miller and Bradley Chubb enough to give Baker a chance to make plays. It’s also not an ideal scheduling spot for Denver – they had two emotional games against the Chargers and Steelers then flew to Cincinnati and then flew cross-country the other way to San Francisco before this game.
Denver should have success in the run game but Keenum has thrown for less than 200 yards in 3 straight games and is now without both Emmanuel Sanders AND Demaryius Thomas. With Baker likely putting up points and taking advantage of the secondary, Denver may have to abandon the run game at points and put the game on Keenum’s shoulders. Baker will be juiced for a Saturday primetime game. Browns win.