Colts +2 at Houston — 3 units
Houston has the worst offensive line in the NFL with Watson being sacked 60 times this year and 12 times against the Colts. The Colts have a really strong rush defense and limited the Texans to 54 yards on 20 carries in the last game where the Colts won 24-21 at NRG stadium. The loss of Demaryius Thomas will limit the Texans offense a bit if the run game is slowed down, so Watson and Hopkins will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting and will likely find themselves in more third-and-mediums/longs than the Colts will.
Andrew Luck has had a lot of success against the Texans. TY Hilton has 314 yards in two games against Houston this year and 7 touchdowns/933 yards in 7 career games at Houston. Eric Ebron has 9 catches for 115 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Texans this season. Marlon Mack averages 4.7 ypc on the season. This Colts offensive line is strong and gave up just 18 sacks all season.
Houston has some key injuries and this is a better matchup for Indy. There’s a chance Keke Coutee plays for this game but it’s still going to be a tough game for Houston to win with the way Luck is playing, especially after what Nick Foles did to Houston’s defense two weeks ago.
Colts win a close one and move on.