Bears -6 vs Eagles

2 units (-120) half point bought.


I’m a big Nick Foles believer but this is the best defense he’s going to face between this year and last year’s Super Bowl run. Last year he played the Falcons defense in Philadelphia on grass where they almost always struggle. Then he caught Minnesota outdoors the week after the miracle win/flat spot vs the Saints and after that he played the Pats whose defense was average at best (and sat Malcolm Butler a half hour before the game). This season he faced the Rams who were in a complete funk after their games vs the Bears and Chiefs. Then he played the Texans who had 3 defensive starters out for the game before playing the Redskins who had nothing to play for and were banged up.

The Bears defense is one of the best the NFL has seen in the last few years. Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks are going to be problems for the Eagles’ offensive line. It doesn’t help that Foles is overcoming a ribs injury. Eddie Jackson might be a bit limited at safety for the Bears but his backup has played well this season and the Bears as a whole should pressure the Eagles in Chicago.

Laying 6 with Trubisky isn’t something anybody wants to run to the counter for, but the Eagles’ secondary is a shell of what it was last year with all the injuries they have (especially to Darby). The Bears’ gameplan will be to hit Foles, win field position, and then let Trubisky lean on Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard first so that he doesn’t have to do everything with his arm. When Trubisky does throw, the Bears WRs have a significant edge over the Eagles secondary. 

The Bears are 7-1 SU at home this year with the only loss coming against the Pats when Khalil Mack was hurt. They won 6 of those 7 games by 6 points or more and the one game that wasn’t by 6+ points was a 5 point win over Minnesota in a game Chicago dominated and Cousins threw a garbage time touchdown. 

Bears limit the Eagles offense and win this one by 9-10 points.