Colts at Chiefs — no play on the spread
Update 3:30 ET : Playing a Chiefs/Saints moneyline parlay for 1 unit. Colts Safety Malik Hooker was just announced inactive. Two key safeties for the Colts now inactive.
The Colts can move the ball on KC but I think the Chiefs find a way to win and have the edge for a few reasons. The snow is an advantage for KC because the Colts play indoors. Snow doesn’t affect games as much as wind does and wind is expected to be normal for this game, so both offenses should be okay.
Colts starting safety Mike Mitchell is out for this game. He got hurt last week against Houston and he’s been huge for the Colts’ secondary so his injury can’t be overlooked. Sammy Watkins is back for the Chiefs for the first time since Week 11 and that helps out Kelce and Hill a lot. KC slowed down once they released Hunt but RB Damien Williams is a monster – big body, hard to tackle, and he’s gained 5.1 ypc on 50 carries so far. He also had 6 catches for 74 yards against the Chargers and 7 catches for 37 yards against the Seahawks. Mahomes will do what he does and make plays when he has to.
Luck should be great in this game, too. He’ll find TY Hilton and Eric Ebron often. Marlon Mack should have a big game because Kansas City’s run defense is soft.
Bottom line, both teams will move the ball. They may need to get adjusted to the snow at first, but both offenses have the advantage in this game. I think we see another close playoff game that gets decided by a big-time Pat Mahomes play. I think he trumps all the first-time playoff QB trends because he is so much better than most of the QBs on that list. For that reason I think KC finds a way to buck their own negative trend in the playoffs. Colts probably cover but Chiefs win.