Chiefs -2.5 vs New England — 3 units
-135, 1/2 point bought
New England is going to have a tough time stopping Mahomes. With Sammy Watkins back, Kansas City has three guys that would all draw double coverage a good portion of the game if it were possible – Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Watkins. If it wasn’t for a blocked punt, Kansas City would’ve been up 24-0 on the Colts in the 4th quarter. Belichick’s typical gameplan of taking away your top option is tough to do against Kansas City.
Andy Reid has had some bad clock management moments in the playoffs but last week’s win gives him and the Chiefs some much needed playoff momentum. Mahomes is good enough to buck the trends that go against Kansas City in the playoffs. Andy Reid is also 2-2 vs Belichick with the Chiefs, winning 41-14 in 2014 and 42-27 in 2017.
Brady will move the ball pretty consistently – Edelman and White played great against the Chargers and Belichick will probably have a heavy run gameplan designed with Michel, White and Burkhead to attack Kansas City’s bad run defense and to keep Mahomes off the field. 3rd downs is where Kansas City’s pass rush will show at times – Chris Jones, Dee Ford, and Justin Houston have played great the last few weeks and they’re not really getting any attention after beating up the Colts’ offensive line. Getting Eric Berry back in the secondary helps the back part of this defense.
Kansas City can expose New England’s run defense similar to how Pittsburgh and Miami did when New England was on the road. Home teams have also won 10 straight in conference championship games (8-2 ATS) and Brady has lost his last 3 road AFC Championship games. Mahomes will be too much for the Pats defense and Kansas City wins by a touchdown or more. I don’t think the 1/2 point bought will matter but I’m removing any possibility of pushing in a playoff game. Chiefs -2.5