Week 1 of the NFL season is often one of the most challenging weeks of the season to handicap for the simple reason that a lot of the data and logic we’re using goes back to last season. Will some of that data and logic carry over into the new season? Sure, but we should also expect a fair amount of turnover as that’s the norm in the NFL year to year.
Aside from analyzing last year’s numbers for this week’s games, I pay particular attention to recent results from head-to-head matchups in divisional games and I especially like to look at how teams perform early in the season.
You can’t really apply a lot of Week 1 or September trends to teams with relatively new head coaches and a lot of player turnover, but I think we need to consider the ones for teams with long-standing head coach/QB combos.
Here’s a few Week 1 trends that I think are relevant to games this week:
– The Patriots are 13-2 SU in their last 15 Week 1 games.
– The Steelers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 1.
– The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.
– The Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games.
– The Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last six Week 1 games at home.
– The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 1 games.
– The total has gone UNDER in six of the Panthers’ last seven Week 1 games.
– The Ravens have gone UNDER in four of their last five Week 1 games.