Christian is a professional sports bettor in Las Vegas. You can follow Christian on Twitter @ChristianPina and the Inside Vegas Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast network. 


Green Bay Packers Vs. Chicago Bears

Game Line: Green Bay Packers (+3) Vs. Chicago Bears

Moneyline: Green Bay Packers (+150) Vs. Chicago Bears (-170)

Game Total: 46.5

      It’s remarkable how much markets can change in a short sample size with the NFL, as sixteen games can switch the public narrative both for and against a team. Let’s start with what we do know, which was the ending to last season for Chicago. It almost seems lazy to weave the narrative Chicago’s Cody Parkey’s missed kick puts Chicago in position for a hangover that bleeds into the season, but it does bear mentioning it’s a possibility and actually likely it’s been with them all season. We also know Green Bay and Chicago split last seasons meetings with Green Bay winning 24-23 in week 1 and Chicago winning in week 15 24-17. We also know that the sharpest expect Chicago to take a step back in the 2019 season as Chicago’s win total sits at 9.5 wins, 2.5 lower than their 12-4 record last season. 

      The long term data certainly sides with Green Bay, as they are 4-1 straight up in their last 5 games in Chicago, winning those four games by an average of 9.8 points per game. Meanwhile,  division underdogs are 17-4-1 against the spread in week one since 2015, and Aaron Rodgers is 56-35 against the spread against the NFC North in his career.

    That was then, this is now. Green Bay brings in new head coach Matt LaFleur, and if you’re not familiar with his offensive accomplishments, he was with Matt Ryan in Atlanta during his MVP season and the offensive coordinator of Sean McVay’s staff when Jared Goff took the next step. The unknown theory certainly works in the favor of Green Bay here as there will be little to no film on the uptempo new offense or know what to expect. Remember when this situation presented itself with McVay & Lefleur for the first time? 

The Rams won 46-9 and when Nagy brought his new offense in last year without any tape, they had Green Bay’s defense on their heels, even though Green Bay came back in the fourth quarter to win that game.

The script is completely flipped in this game where Chicago will be on their heels, which is where we can apply what we saw last season to this one, as Chicago’s new offense went into halftime up 17-0 on Green Bay, which is why Green Bay for the first half spread also makes a compelling argument. 

Green Bay’s defense had a miserable time trying to contain the never before seen scrambles from Trubisky as well, but no team possibly did more to improve their defense this off season than Green Bay adding five defensive starters in the draft and free agency, including DE Za’Darius Smith, OLB Preston Smith, and DE Rashan Gary who will set the edge and contain Trubisky’s legs, and even if he does break containment, first round safety Darnell Savage had a sub 4.38 40 yard dash time and can close the distance quickly. This is one of the fastest defenses in the league now, and it happened virtually overnight.