Drew Brees Passing Yards Under 4199.5 -115

The Saints could very well be a team that finds themselves in the Super Bowl this season but, as I talked about earlier this summer in our team previews, I’m not as high on them as most and don’t think they’ll be the beneficiary of a weak/injured division again this season.  Strength of schedule projections, are just that: projections.  While last year the defenses they faced turned out to be much easier than predicted, I believe we will see things turn the other way in 2019 with a handful of teams on the schedule that have secondaries that I rate higher than most.  I’ve outlined a few other reasons why this was a play for me this season:

• Despite facing the 5th easiest passing defense schedule, managed “only” 3992 yards in 15 games, his lowest in a Saints uniform.

• According to Football Outsiders, Brees didn’t take any “non-pressure sacks” last season. He led the NFL with 8.1 yards per attempt and had the 2nd best passer rating in the league.   I expect some regression in stats like this especially if we can see some better play from Atlanta & Carolina.

• I am buying into the Warren Sharp theory that the big hit he took on Thanksgiving has affected his deep passing:• Finally, having a very solid backup in Teddy Bridgewater makes it a much easier decision to sit him for a game or two if he does have any sort of injury throughout the season.  It’s impossible to predict injuries, but the fact that he’s 39 doesn’t help him in this regard.