The Bucs offense looked terrible on Sunday vs the 49ers and the only bright spot was that their running game got going in the 2nd half – Winston threw 3 picks, the offense averaged just 4.5 yards/play and then Tampa started feeding Ronald Jones more in the run game where he picked up 68 yards on 9 carries in the second half. Facing a really good Panthers front 7 with an ex-teammate (Gerald McCoy) who knows everything about Jameis’ tendencies, I expect a good amount of handoffs and short passes to get Winston in a rhythm early. The Panthers’ soft spot on defense Sunday vs the Rams was in the run game but they held Goff to just 4.76 yards/attempt, so if you’re Bruce Arians there are more than enough reasons to favor the run early here. The Bucs defense played well vs the 49ers and there’s a lot of talent in this front 7 with Such and Vita Vea leading the way. San Francisco RBs only gained 3.33 yards/carry Sunday (100 yards/30 carries) and Jimmy G had just 166 yards on 27 attempts (6.1 yards/attempt). The Panthers/Rams played a 16 point first half and the Bucs/49ers played a 13 point first half. The Bucs and Panthers have gone 5-1 to the full game Under their last 6 games as well, finishing with totals of 41, 41, 20, 33, 31, and an outlier of 70. The four NFL primetime games this year have all gone Under in the first halves too, with combined scores of 10, 20, 17, and 14. Enough analytical support for me to login to the account and lock in this 1st half Under for a few dollars.
NFL 2019: +2.1 units, 3-5 (three big plays hit, small ones didn’t)
NFL preseason 2019: +3.75 units, 9-5
+5.85 units, 12-10