3 units
I’m going against a lot of the fundamentals with this one – road favorite, inflated number, in primetime. But I think the Browns have a high ceiling on offense tonight because the Jets are bad at the cornerback spot, have a lot of holes in the front 7 with Mosley, Williamson, and Williams all out, and the Browns just got embarrassed last week and will be fired up to get that out of their systems in primetime tonight.
Jets CB Trumaine Johnson gave up 110 yards on 7 receptions last week and will be up against OBJ tonight. The Browns offensive line isn’t good but the Jets don’t have much of a pass rush tonight so that weakness gets hidden a bit. Baker should get the ball out quickly. Landry wants to beat Gase after he traded him away. Odell doesn’t like Gregg Williams after he supposedly had his defenders target OBJ in a preseason game 2 years ago. I don’t know if that’s true but OBJ’s pissed and in primetime vs an inferior corner and that’s enough for me. You’re also getting Baker off an embarrassing game. The Browns should be able to do what they want in the run game as well.
Siemian is going to target LeV Bell and Crowder heavy tonight but Bell only had 3.5 yards/carry last week vs Buffalo and the Jets’ run blocking was 30th worst in the NFL. If Siemian is going to be in 3rd & 6s and 3rd & 7s often, I’ll put money on the Browns and their defense. The front line will get to Siemian. Myles Garrett had 2 sacks last week and will win his matchup. Browns DE Chris Smith is playing after his girlfriend passed away in a car accident the other night. I think this defense is going to play with a heavy heart and look to come out strong in primetime. I can see Siemian moving the ball some drives in between the 20s but I just don’t see him having success in the redzone – he doesn’t have a good fastball and the Jets run blocking isn’t strong. I think the Jets will put up 3s and the Browns will put up more 7s.
The Browns have a ton of egos on that team who LOVE the spotlight and their egos all just got hit in a 30 point blowout last week. I think they’re hungry and they’re definitely more talented. Save for maybe some coaching unknowns with Freddie Kitchens as a head coach, I see so many angles to take the Browns and go against it looking like a bad number to play. Browns may have to wear them down slowly throughout the game, but I think this is Browns by double digits.
