This isn’t the same Broncos defense from the last couple of years. Yes, they held the Chargers to 13 points last week but the Chargers have all sorts of injuries and are hurt on the offensive line as well. Denver just gave up 225 yards on the ground to Leonard Fournette at home two weeks ago and Derrick Henry should be able to find some holes in the running game. Denver is thin at the LB position and the loss of Bradley Chubb is big. They’re also weak at CB outside of Chris Harris Jr. The Titans are 2-3 but could be 4-1 – they lost last week 14-7 in a game where their kicker missed 4 field goals. They lost 19-17 on a late score vs the Colts who just beat Kansas City.
When Denver has the ball, their RT and LT are outmatched by Tennessee’s pass rush. I’m comfortable betting against Joe Flacco as a favorite and the home altitude angle in Denver isn’t as strong as it once was – Denver is 1-7-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2017. I’ll take Mariota to do just enough and for Tennessee to win this game.