Colts -1, 1 unit
Indianapolis comes off the bye here and they get Darius Leonard back after being out for a number of games. Indianapolis has dominated this series with Leonard in the lineup and Indy sent Houston home in the playoffs by double digits last year. Houston’s offensive line is getting praised for “improvement” the last 2 weeks – they played the Falcons and Chiefs, two defenses that stink and have no pass rush. The Colts have beaten the Texans offensive line multiple times over the years and Houston just lost their starting RT for this game. Watson will not have it easy today like he had it last week.
Offensively, Indy’s Oline can beat the Texans Dline. Houston also just lost starting corner Bradley Ruby and that will hurt. The Colts have a legitimate run game with Mack and a clear edge in the trenches here. Whenever you bet against Watson you can’t expect to have too big of a margin, which is why this is just a 1 unit, but I like the Colts to win this game and move to 4-2 in a big division game where they come in today a half game behind Houston.