Panthers +5.5 @ Niners – Panthers coming off the bye. Emmanuel Sanders just traded to SF. Juszcyk being out for SF is big and is affecting the run game. LT Joe Staley might play though. RT Mike McGLinchey is still going to be out. Panthers have the front 7 and the run defense to take advantage of SF’s injuries up front. In a game SF dominated the Rams, the 49ers only put up 20 points and Tevin Coleman and Breida combined for just 31 carries/81 yards. Shanahan also admitted that game he didn’t have Jimmy G drop back that much because of the injuries up front. So I think this is a lower scoring game, the points are valuable and I lean Carolina here early at +5.5/6.
Browns @ Patriots -13 – Don’t see how you can bet the Browns even with the high #. The Pats Oline still isn’t very good but McDaniels just ran plays the other night to get the ball out of Brady’s hands fast. Obvious coaching mismatch and Freddie might be the one seeing ghosts on the sidelines in Foxborough this weekend. Cleveland’s secondary is better than the Jets, but the Browns are giving up 5.0 yards/carry and I feel like even if Brady doesn’t put up huge numbers he’ll be in manageable 3rd down situations and do what he does best. Sanu should be involved in maybe 1 big play that catches Cleveland off guard. The defense should dominate Baker, force a few turnovers. Pats have covered all 3 double digit spreads this year and are 10-2 ATS the last 12 times they were a double digit favorite.
Eagles @ Bills -2 – the Bills average 4.93 yards/carry between Gore, Josh Allen, and Singletary. The Eagles just gave up 189 yards on the ground to the Cowboys. Eagles beat writer: “Lane Johnson saying players need to be held accountable for their actions, including being late for meetings.” So this is a situation where we don’t really know what’s going on in the locker room but there’s smoke. This is either going to be a big bounce back game for Philly or the beginning of a disaster. With Jason Peters hurt, the backup LT Dillard didn’t look good the last 2 games and I can’t see how it gets easier vs Buffalo’s defense. Eagles have Dline problems. I don’t think I’m betting this but the Bills have advantages on both sides of the ball and this would take a big rally from the Eagles, which I don’t know how we predict, for them to win this game. Bills or pass.
Brady vs Bills defense in Week 4: 18/39 150 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT
Packers -4 @ Chiefs – Packers strong lean. Matt Moore will be going up against a really good front 7. Davante Adams’ status is still up in the air but the game vs Oakland let Rodgers get in rhythm with his WRs – 429 yards and 5 TDs vs Oakland on Sunday, no INTs. The Chiefs give up 5.0 yards/carry and Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams should be able to do what they want in the run game. The Chiefs are getting healthier – LT Eric Fisher, Sammy Watkins, and DT Chris Jones all have a chance to play. The defense still has holes even if Jones comes back – he played most of the game vs the Colts when the Colts got 180 yards one the ground. I think LeFleur is overrated as a coach and this offense isn’t as good as they looked vs Oakland but they have momentum and are going against a bad defense, whereas Moore will be going against one of the best front 7s in the league. Packers won and covered both road games so far this year (@CHI, @DAL). Chiefs lost 2 home games in a row with Mahomes.
Cardinals @ Saints -9.5 – High number and the Cards looked a lot better on defense with the return of Patrick Peterson, but I don’t know how you bet against the Saints confidently at this point. Saints front 7 can beat Arizona’s offensive line. Kyler’s had it pretty easy the last 3 weeks going against the Giants, Falcons, and Bengals. The last time Arizona played a competitive team they lost 27-10 vs Seattle. Two of three Cardinals losses this year were by double digits. Again, PP helps the defense a ton by being able to play and limit a team’s WR1 by himself, but this is still a big step up in class. The Saints defense has 20 sacks and their offensive line has given up just 12. Latavius Murray had 119 yards with Kamara out and Kamara might be out again. I feel like the Giants made the Cards defense look so much better than they are – Arizona had 8 sacks but that was mainly because the Giants right side of the line sucked. Arizona still gave up 356 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INT on 30/36 to Matt Ryan two weeks ago before PP returned.
