Redskins at Vikings -17, O/U 42 – Adam Thielen has been ruled out.
We don’t recommend a bet on this game with the # being this high and with Minnesota not in a high sense of urgency situation – Minnesota is off 3 wins in a row and there’s a potential for them to not play as hard vs Washington as they have the last few weeks, especially with the Chiefs and Cowboys next up on the schedule for them. But these are some notes and angles to consider:
We don’t recommend a bet on this game with the # being this high and with Minnesota not in a high sense of urgency situation – Minnesota is off 3 wins in a row and there’s a potential for them to not play as hard vs Washington as they have the last few weeks, especially with the Chiefs and Cowboys next up on the schedule for them. But these are some notes and angles to consider:
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The Vikings enter this Thursday night game on a short week on a bit of
a roll after winning 3 straight. Kirk Cousins found his way 2 weeks ago at home against the Eagles and had another good day on the road in Detroit, throwing for
300+ and 3 TDs.
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The Vikings offense is ranked #6 in the league in FO’s offensive
efficiency ranking. They will face the Redskins defense that ranks #25
in defensive efficiency. This would point to a Minny TT over around 29,
but on a short week I suspect the Vikings may take an early lead
against a water pistol offense and run the clock with their #7 rated run
game that puts up 160 yards/gm, good for #3 in the league.
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The Vikings OL, which has not been a strong unit for them in years
past, ranks #7 in run blocking, good for 160 rush yards/gm. They will
go up against the Redskins’ DL that ranks #26 in the league, allowing
134.4 rush yards/gm.
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The Redskins were gashed for 213 yards against Dallas in week
2, 164 yards against the Giants in week 4 and 140 against the
Patriots in Week 6.
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Dalvin Cook went for 142 yards on 25 carries vs the Lions’ #28
ranked DL run stop unit that allows 139.2 yards/gm and 132
against the Giants’ #26 ranked run stopping defense that allows
131.4 yards/gm.
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This points to a Dalvin Cook player prop OVER on Thursday.
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Vikings rank #1 in RZ offense, scoring TD’s on 71% of trips to the RZ.
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Vikings defense ranks #7 in stopping the run, allowing only 90
yards/gm. They will face the Redskins’ offense that may be trailing
early and ranks #28 in rushing efficiency and #24 in rush yards/gm.
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Adrian Peterson tweaked an ankle this week, and Chris Thompson has a toe injury. Both are questionable and, if they play, their rushing total Unders are worth a look for a small prop bet.
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Pat has a background as a financial analyst and studies a number of analytical angles every week in the NFL. He’ll post his previews and notes every week on here and you can follow him on Twitter @PHigg_Sports
