I am fully prepared to fire on a Mahomes over to fully expose the Raiders’ defense and lean to a Chiefs TT OVER at 30.5.
- The Chiefs enter this game off a bye following solid road victory over the Chargers in LA 2 weeks ago. The Raiders travel to Kansas City after being embarrassed by the Jets on the East Coast.
- The Raiders almost reached media darling status a few weeks ago, looking like they could have a shot at a wild card spot after a tumultuous start in which AB may or may not have recorded his head coach without his consent and made a huge hype video for Twitter that was either a deliberate attempt to get released or simply what AB thought was cool at that particular moment in time but I digress.
- The Raiders have the #31 ranked defense in the league that also ranks #30 in pass defense efficiency and #28 in pass yards allowed/game (268.5). Patrick Mahomes missed two games and played a good portion of the season on a bad ankle prior to his injury to the kneecap, and the Chiefs still rank #3 in the league in offensive efficiency, #2 in pass offense efficiency and #2 in the league in pass yards/game (302).
- The Raiders’ pass defense is prime to be exposed in this game. Aaron Rodgers went for 429 yards and 5 touchdowns, Deshaun Watson went for 279 yards and 3 TD’s, Matt Stafford went for 406 yards and 3 TD’s, and even Sam Darnold went for 315 yards and 2 TD’s over the last 6 weeks. Mahomes went for 443 yards and 4 TD’s in Week 2. Tyreek Hill is also getting healthier and will enjoy a nice matchup in the slot against either Lamarcus Joyner, who ranks as the league’s worst starting slot corner per Pro Football Focus, or Nevin Lawson, who backs up the league’s worst slot corner. Joyner has allowed a 76.5% catch rate this season, and allowing Tyreek Hill to catch a ball in space spells for YAC
Pat has a background as a financial analyst for a major bank and focuses a lot on the analytical side of handicapping. You can follow him on Twitter @phigg_sports