2 unit bet
Riding with the Chiefs in this one. The Chiefs defense is getting talked about like San Francisco is just going to move the ball up and down on them at will and I don’t think that’s the case- Derrick Henry went into Baltimore a few weeks ago, a team that most of the country anointed Super Bowl champs before Thanksgiving, and ran for 195 yards on them and the Titans beat the Ravens by double digits. The week before that he went into New England, played against the coach who knows how to take away what you do best, and Henry ran down their throat for 182 yards. Then he goes into Kansas City and they hold him to 3.6 yards per carry and 69 yards. Now most people aren’t even giving credit to Kansas City for doing that because “Tennessee’s offense isn’t good.” Well, it was good enough to beat New England’s defense in Foxborough and John Harbaugh’s Ravens defense in Baltimore, but somehow Kansas City just got fortunate to play an offense that wasn’t very good.
Terrell Suggs, Chris Jones, Frank Clark, Reggie Ragland, Tyrann Mathieu and Mike Pennel may not be as strong as San Francisco’s defense, but they’re definitely not as bad as the perception on them and I don’t think San Fran will dominate the run game like they have been. Steve Spagnuolo was the DC for the NY Giants when they beat the undefeated New England Patriots in the Super Bowl and held them to 14 points. What he’s done with this defense is the same thing he did with the Giants – they had a learning curve early in the season and then they turned things up in December and January. I think Jimmy G will be put in more big 3rd down situations than he’s been in lately and that can get KC’s defense off the field more often.
San Francisco’s defense is great but KC’s offense is built to beat a great defense and that’s especially the case when Mahomes scrambles, improvises and starts making plays you can’t prepare for. SF plays a lot of zone and Mahomes usually beats a zone and finds openings.
A couple of small, intangible angles I like that I think favor KC: SF hasn’t played a competitive game in 5 weeks – they played a close game vs SEA in Week 17 then had a bye, blowout vs MIN, blowout vs GB, another bye, and now they’re here. KC has had to play close games throughout the playoffs. When this is a close game, SF hasn’t been in this situation in a little while. It hurt Baltimore when they played Tennessee. I also like the fact that KC was one play away from making the Super Bowl last year whereas San Fran, although due to Jimmy G’s injury, was a 4 win team. I’m not saying this means more to KC but coming so close last year feels like it’s KC’s year this year and that there’s been more build up for the Super Bowl than SF.
An exciting, chess match of a Super Bowl that I see Kansas City winning a close one. Andy Reid gets his first Super Bowl, go to 24-5 with an extra week to prepare, and Mahomes beats the team that drafted Solomon Thomas over him back in 2017. Chiefs 27-24, enjoy the game.
Past Super Bowl picks: 6-1 since posting picks publicly.
2019: Patriots -2.5 vs Rams, Win
2018: Eagles +5 vs Patriots, Win
2017: Falcons +3 vs Patriots, Loss
2016: Broncos +6 vs Panthers, Win
Under 44, Win
Broncos ML +210, Win
2015: Patriots PK vs Seahawks