I don’t think either game today is a great betting opportunity to be completely honest. Some years on Championship weekend like last year the 49ers over Green Bay looked clear as day. This year looks like two great games and both lines are where they should be. So what I’m about to type out is not what I think is some magical handicap but just why I’m going with the Packers again and will go down swinging on them if they lose. I’ve bet Green Bay 5 times since late November and have been saying it’s Rodgers’ year for 2 months so I’m not wavering off that now.
Packers -3 -115
2 units
I do feel Drew Brees and New Orleans coughed that game up last week. Up 20-13 at midfield and then Jared Cook fumbles. Brees with 3 bad interceptions that Rodgers won’t have. Brady played great situational football but it wasn’t like he dominated – 6.03 yards/attempt. Green Bay is very different from October 18th when they last played. Brady’s used to the cold, but what about the rest of the team? Tampa Bay isn’t Tennessee but Green Bay dominated the Titans 40-14 in Lambeau a few weeks ago and Derrick Henry didn’t get 100 yards. Rodgers pretty much dominated the Rams defense – 8.2 yards/attempt, 32 points, and the Packers could’ve had more. Packers RBs had 191 yards vs the Rams. Jalen Ramsey was supposed to shut down Adams and Adams had 9 receptions. And this is not to discredit Tampa Bay’s defense but it’s just facts – when you’re playing a quarterback that is knowingly not going to go down the field like Brees, you can be a lot more aggressive against him. I don’t think Tampa Bay’s defense is going to have the same success vs Rodgers. Taylor Heinicke was in a 5 point game vs Tampa Bay with less than 5 minutes left to go.
Enjoy the game whichever side you’re on. I’m riding or dying with Aaron Rodgers and think it’s Green Bay’s year.