A bunch of stats and angles relevant for the game on Sunday:
- Based on DVOA, the Bucs have the #3 ranked offense and the Chiefs have the #22 ranked defense
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Underdogs are 13-6-1 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2000
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This line opened at 3.5 and has moved towards the 3 at almost every shop at the time of writing this and I don’t see it moving off the 3. Teams that the line moves towards in the Super Bowl (move towards meaning from +3.5 to +3 or -2.5 to -3) are an amazing 10-5 ATS in the last 17 SBs (2 of those SBs the line did not move)
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When it comes to injuries, DT Vita Vea and CB Jamel Dean (Tampa’s fastest corner) both DNP in the first game vs Kansas City and both will play in the Super Bowl. Jamel Dean ran a 4.3 forty. Tyreek Hill ran a 4.29. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are missing their two starting tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz who might be the best tackle duo in the NFL
- Kansas City gave up the 5th most yards to TEs during the regular season (954). Over props on Gronk and Brate are both worth looks.
- Since 2003, Teams with the worse win percentage of the two teams in the Super Bowl have gone 13-1 ATS (92.9%). This applies to the Bucs
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Mike Remmers is starting at LT for Kansas City. He gave up 7 pressures and 2 sacks vs Von Miller in Super Bowl 50
- The Bucs and Chiefs are 3rd and 4th in the NFL respectively in adjusted sack rate
- Kansas City had the 32nd ranked red zone defense during the regular season and Tampa Bay had the 5th most red-zone TDs per game during the regular season
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The Bucs gave up 61 points in the 4th quarter during the regular season which was only one point more than the league leader and they had 24 4th quarter sacks in the regular season, six more than the next-closest NFL team
- In Brady’s 9 Super Bowls, the 1st quarter total points were less than 10 in 8 of the 9 games
- Kansas City gave up the most receiving yards to RBs during the regular season (846)
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Teams that won the SB and went again the next year are 8-5 SU in their repeat attempt
